摘要
高速公路交通量的准确预测,对于高速公路的发展和养护具有重要的作用。基于交通量预测的重要意义,建立了ARIMA(2,1,3)时间序列分析模型,采用四川省成渝高速公路公开的交通量数据,对该高速公路四川省内路段2013年的月交通量进行了预测,再与实际交通量数据进行对比,并将其与基于最小二乘法的CurveExpert软件预测结果进行比较,得出ARIMA(2,1,3)模型预测精度更高的结论。所建立的模型可以为交通运输管理部门的政策制定提供参考依据。
The accurate forecast of the traffic volume of an expressway plays an important role in the development and maintenance of it.Considering the great importance of the forecast of traffic volume,an ARIMA（2,1,3）time-series analysis model is established in the paper to forecast the monthly traffic volume of the section within Sichuan of the Cheng-Yu Expressway during2013 by making use of the public data on the real traffic volume of the section,and the calculated results are compared with the actual traffic data.Then,they are compared with the forecast result obtained by means of the maximum-square-method-based CurveExpert software,upon the basis of which a conclusion is drawn that the ARIMA（2,1,3）model is even more accurate in forecasting the traffic volume of an expressway.The model established here may provide a useful reference for various traffic administrative sectors in making policies.
出处
《国防交通工程与技术》
2015年第6期34-36,16,共4页
Traffic Engineering and Technology for National Defence
