摘要
本文利用UNComtrade 2012年的HS6分位贸易数据综合构建了"一带一路"上65个国家的高端制造业贸易网络,运用网络中心性和模体分析,考察各国在贸易网络中的地位和贸易模式,并通过指数随机图模型探讨了"一带一路"上高端制造业贸易网络形成的主要影响因素。研究表明:中国、印度、新加坡在"一带一路"的高端制造业贸易网络中发挥着重要的"桥梁"和"枢纽"作用,而中亚、北亚众多伊斯兰国家处于"一带一路"高端制造业贸易网络的边缘,不平衡的非互惠贸易关系在贸易网络中仍然普遍存在;中国更多时候在整个贸易网络中扮演了出口行为的发出者,俄罗斯在特定区域存在集团化的贸易模式,印度的贸易模式相对缺乏互惠性;FTA网络对于高端制造业贸易网络的影响最强,其次是接壤网络和临近网络。制度因素中,贸易、金融和货币自由度以及政府效能对高端制造业贸易具有明显正向促进作用。
This paper firstly constructs high-end manufacturing trade network of 65 countries on ＂One Belt and One Road＂ based on the UNComtrade HS six-digit data in 2012, uses the network centrality analysis and motif analysis to investigate the countries＇ status in international trade network and trade patterns, and discusses the factors which influence the formation of high-end manufacturing trade network on ＂One Belt and One Road＂. The result shows that： China, India and Singapore play important ＂Bridge＂ and ＂Hub＂ roles in the high-end manufacturing trade network, while many Islamic countries of Central and North Asia are on the edge. Non- reciprocal trade relations are still very common in the real trade network. Countries take different high-end manufacturing trade patterns on ＂One Belt and One Road＂： China plays a export behavior in the trade network, Russia presents group trade patterns in specific areas, and India＇s trade pattern relatively lacks reciprocity. Among the eovariate networks, the FTA network has the strongest effect on the high-end manufacturing trade network, which is followed by border network and distance network. Among the institutional factors, Trade Freedom, Financial Freedom, Monetary Freedom, and Government Efficiency have obvious positive effect on high-end manufacturing trade.
出处
《财贸经济》
CSSCI
北大核心
2015年第12期74-88,共15页
Finance & Trade Economics
基金
国家社会科学基金项目"全球化背景下文化对国际贸易与外商直接投资的影响及政策研究"(10BJL040)
国家自然科学基金项目"文化的空间结构对国际贸易网络演化的影响研究"(41371134)
关键词
“一带一路”
高端制造业
复杂网络
指数随机图模型
“One Belt and One Road”, High-end Manufacturing, Complex Networks, Motif Analysis,Exponential Random Graph Models
