摘要
在预测机场旅客吞吐量时需考虑邻近机场间的竞争因素,首先以具有竞争模式的种群动力学理论为基础,通过在种群动力学非线性微分方程组中增加常数项,建立了一般的上海、南京和杭州机场旅客吞吐量耦合的非线性微分方程组,分析该微分方程组的8种具体形式。以预测值和观测值的误差平方和为目标函数,提出了确定微分方程组中系数的优化方法,这种优化方法以逐个多轮次的方式对系数进行优化确定。最后利用所建模型对上海、南京和杭州机场旅客吞吐量进行预测。从预测结果可见,这种预测模型能够较好地反映三地机场间的相互关系和发展趋势。
Taking the competition between nearby airports into consideration during passenger throughput fi^recast, the general non-linear differential equations with eight different modes about the passenger throughputs in airports of Shanghai, Nanjing and Hangzhou are firstly presented based on the population dynamics theory with competition and addition of constants in classical differential equations. Then an optimization method is presented to estimate the parameters in the equations based on the least square method. In the method the parameters are estimated one by one in some cycles. Lastly the passenger forecast in airports of Shanghai, Nanjing and Hangzhou is performed by using the presented model. It can be seen from the results that the model can reflect the relationships among the three airports and the developments of them.
出处
《中国民航大学学报》
CAS
2015年第6期32-36,共5页
Journal of Civil Aviation University of China
关键词
机场旅客吞吐量
种群动力学
竞争关系
预测模型
优化方法
airport passenger throughputs
population dynamics
competitive relationship
predicting model
optimization method
