摘要
为了探讨河南省经济发展与主要矿产品产量的关系,调研、收集了2001~2013年河南省4项主要经济指标和12项主要矿业产品产量。运用灰色系统理论,构建了4种灰色关联度矩阵,得出准优、次准优特征行为序列分别为：矿产品出口总额、GDP;准优系统相关因素序列依次为：原煤产量、成品钢材产量、水泥产量;最差系统相关因素序列为：原油产量和天然气产量;各种灰色关联度中,能源消耗总量与原煤产量相关关系最为密切,与发电量相关关系次之。另外,选取8个重要指标,选择最近4年来的数据,运用GM（1,1）和DGM（2,1）2种灰色预测模型分别进行了预测,并采用＂新陈代谢＂方法,保证了预测的准确性和科学性,所预测的8个指标都呈快速上升的趋势,特别是水泥产量、成品钢材产量、发电量和天然气产量。
In order to explore the relationship between economic development and main products output of mining industry in Henan Province,four principle economic indexes and 12 items of important products output of mining industry from the year of 2001 ~ 2013 were collected for investigation. Based on the grey system theory,4 matrixes of grey incidence were constructed,with the total export of product from mining industry and GDP in the most quasi-preferred characteristic sequence and second. And the relevant factors for the most quasi-preferred system were the raw coal output,finished steel production and cement output,while the relevant factors for the last one were raw oil output and natural gas output. The degrees of grey incidence reflected that the total energy consumption had the closest relationship with raw coal output,and the second with the gross electric output. By selecting 8 important indexes,the GM（ 1,1） and DGM（ 2,1） models were adopted for prediction with data from the nearest 4 years and the metabolism of DGM was used for ensuring the accuracy and science nature of the prediction. It is found that the forecasted 8 indexes,especially the cement output,finished steel production,electric and natural gas output,showed a fast increase.
出处
《矿冶工程》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2015年第6期152-158,共7页
Mining and Metallurgical Engineering
基金
国家社科基金青年项目(12CJL073)
关键词
矿产品
产量
关联度
预测
products of mining industry
output
grey incidence degree
forecast
