摘要
本文首先采用指数平滑模型、ARIMA模型及多元回归模型,对中国海洋生物医药业增加值建立了单项预测模型,随后引进诱导有序加权几何平均(IOWGA)算子的概念,建立了组合预测模型。实证结果表明,组合模型能有效提高预测精度。最后利用组合模型对"十三五"期间中国海洋生物医药业发展趋势进行了预测分析并提出了对策建议。
China＇s marine biomedicine industry has developed rapidly in recent years. Firstly, the paper respectively makes use of ex- ponential smoothing model, ARIMA model and multiple regression model to construct models of added value of China＇s marine biomedi- cine industry. Secondly, by introducing the concept of induced ordered weighted geometric averaging operator, it constructs the combi- nation forecasting model of added value of marine biomedicine industry. The empirical results show that the combination forecasting mod- el can effectively improves the prediction accuracy. Finally, it predicts the development trend of China＇s marine biomedicine industry during the 13th Five-Year Plan period by using the above combination forecasting model and then gives the corresponding policy recom- mendations.
出处
《中国科技论坛》
CSSCI
北大核心
2016年第1期69-76,共8页
Forum on Science and Technology in China
关键词
海洋生物医药业
IOWGA算子
组合预测
Marine biomedicine industry
IOWGA operator
Combination forecasting
