摘要
在未来智能电网中,配有独立电源的重要用户会扮演着双重角色,既是二次能源和用电服务的使用者,也会在特定时刻变成电能的提供者。这样的转变会迫使电力公司改变风险管理方式,因为有源用户发电风险会通过并网运行的方式传递给电网。基于此,提出了层次型有源重要用户发电风险传递结构。当存在发电风险时,供电公司会根据用户重要程度分配中断负荷。鉴于传统重要用户定性定义的模糊性,结合电力产业特性,利用改进的蚁群算法定义了用户成为电力公司重要用户的概率公式,进而设定风险传递的概率。最后通过算例模拟了风险传递过程,计算了风险损失,结果表明在电力产业链中用户依然是风险的最大受害者,结合实际给出了用户侧和供电侧应对发电风险的策略和建议。
In the future of smart grid,important consumers with stand-by electric source will have a dual position,that is,they are both users and suppliers of secondary energy and power service when electric source is accessed to trade with power company. The transformation forces state grid to change risk management because generation risk of consumers with electric source would transmit to power grid through grid connected operation. In that case,this paper proposes a hierarchical structure of consumers electric power generation risk transmission. When there is a risk,electricity company chooses interruptible load consumers in order of consumers importance,which is the process that risk transmits from supply side to consumer side. In the light of the ambiguity of qualitative definition,combining with electric power industry＇s character,this paper gives the definition of important consumers with improved ant colony algorithm and then analyzes the probability of risk transmission. In addition,case analysis simulates the process of power generation risk transmission,calculates the risk losses and verifies that the main victims are still consumers in electric power industry chain. Finally,this paper gives some reasonable suggestions on risk aversion based on the results.
出处
《华北电力大学学报（自然科学版）》
CAS
北大核心
2015年第6期84-91,共8页
Journal of North China Electric Power University：Natural Science Edition
基金
国家自然科学基金资助项目(71271084)
国家电网公司科技项目(XZGDKJ201502)
关键词
有源重要用户
风险传递
蚁群算法
important power consumers with electric source
risk transmission
ant colony algorithm
