摘要
为解决地震灾害风险评价中存在的模糊性和不确定性问题,基于地震危险性、社会敏感性、承载脆弱性和震害应急性构建综合评价体系,引入正态云模型进行求解。以毕节市为例,分析其地震灾害风险正态云模型数值特征,得到各区县多级指标评价结果。实例分析表明,毕节市全局地震灾害风险属中等水平,各区县间呈现"西北-东南"风险等级递减规律;地震灾害高风险区为威宁县和七星关区,低风险区为大方县和黔西县,其余区县介于两者之间。
In order to solve the problems of fuzziness and uncertainty in earthquake disaster risk assessment,a comprehensive evaluation system was established on the basis of earthquake hazard,social vulnerability,carrier fragility and earthquake disaster emergency. The theory of ＂ normal cloud model＂ was introduced to solve the problems. Numerical characteristics of ＂ normal cloud model＂ were analyzed and evaluation results in each county were got in the case study of earthquake disaster risk in Bijie. Analysis shows that global earthquake risk in Bijie is at a medium level,that the risk decreases progressively in the northwest-southeast direction,and that counties of Weining and Qixingguan are at a high risk level,while Dafang and Qianxi are the counties at a low risk level.
出处
《中国安全科学学报》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2015年第10期166-171,共6页
China Safety Science Journal
基金
贵州省科技厅社会发展攻关项目(2013-SY-3108)
毕节市科技项目(201404)
关键词
正态云模型
地震灾害风险
正向云发生器
云隶属度
评价体系
毕节市
normal cloud model
earthquake hazard risk
forward cloud generator
cloud membership
evaluation system
Bijie city
