摘要
目前我国大型并网风电场广泛开展了风电功率预测业务,但实际运营中反映出预测精度不稳定、预测系统运行/开发人员间交互性差、运维成本高等问题,现行运营模式与实际工程应用需求存在显著的差距。设计了一套风电功率预测新型互联网运营模式,对其理论基础、基本概念、核心功能进行了论述。新型运营模式一方面依托大数据技术建立新风电功率预测系统,提升风电场预测精度;另一方面建立预测服务商、风电场用户多方沟通交流的自服务平台,为专业服务平台提供用户侧反馈,促进功率预测结果的可用性。最后基于在吉林风电场群的实际应用证明了该模式在拓宽预测数据视野、提高预测精度等方面具有积极作用。
Nowadays wind power forecast is widely carried out at large grid-connected wind farms in China. There is significant gap between current operation scheme of wind power forecasting systems（WPFSs） and practical application requirements because of disadvantages in on-site situations, such as unstable forecasting accuracy, poor interaction between system operators and developers and high maintenance costs. A new operation scheme of WPFS based on energy internet was proposed with its theoretical basis, basic concepts and core functions roundly discussed. Forecasting accuracy for single wind farm could be improved with big data based WPFS（BD-WPFS）, and WPFS adaptability could be promoted with newly built self-service platform, which allows user-side feedback using multi-communication between forecasting service providers and wind farm operators. Finally, advantages of the new operation scheme were validated with case study based on practical application at a wind farms in Jilin, in terms of a broader view of input data and higher forecasting accuracy.
出处
《电网技术》
EI
CSCD
北大核心
2016年第1期125-131,共7页
Power System Technology
基金
国家自然科学基金重大基金项目(51190101)~~
关键词
风电功率预测
能源互联网
大数据
预测误差相关性
wind power forecast
energy internet
big data
correlation of forecasting error
