摘要
在国际贸易和二元经济模型的基础上构建理论框架和计量模型,利用我国284个地级及以上城市2003-2013年面板数据研究进出口贸易对人口城市化的影响,结果显示,进口贸易与出口贸易均显著促进人口城市化水平提高;进出口贸易总额对人口城市化的综合影响显著为正,且这一综合影响效果显著高于单纯出口或进口影响。各地区出口贸易与进口贸易对人口城市化影响均显著为正,且在东部和西部地区出口的作用大于进口,而在中部地区进口的作用则大于出口;进出口贸易总额对西部地区城市化的综合影响最大,东部次之,中部最小。随着人口城市化分位数的提高,进口和出口贸易影响均呈倒U型发展趋势;进出口贸易对城市化的综合边际效应呈现先降后增的U型发展趋势。
The paper builds a theoretical framework and econometric model based on the international trade and the dual economic model,with China more than 284 prefectural cities from 2004 to 2010 panel data to study the effect of the import and export trade on population urbanization. The results show that the import and export trade is significantly improve population urbanization level; The total volume of import and export trade is significantly positive to population urbanization, and the comprehensive effect is significantly higher than pure affect total exports and imports. Regional export trade and import trade is significantly positive effect on urbanization, and the effect of export in the east and west in China is greater than the effect of import, meanwhile the effect of import in the central region is greater than the effect of export; The comprehensive impact of total import and export trade to urbanization in west China is the largest, east is the second, central is minimal. With the improvement of population urbanization, the development trend of import and export is present increased first then drop, and the inflection point of imports to urbanization contribution margin is at 25% of the site, and the inflection point of exports to urbanization contribution margin is at 75%;The integrated marginal effect of import and export trade to urbanization presents a U-shaped trend which means upward after the first drop.
出处
《城市学刊》
2015年第5期1-11,共11页
Journal of Urban Studies
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(41541004)
