摘要
我国政府投资结构的调整和优化决定了其在新常态下对经济增长的影响效力和可持续性。本文通过构建基于投资的中国宏观经济模型,对政府投资进行历史模拟、预测和反历史模拟,并以持续的地方政府投资为例,分析政府投资的有效性、投资结构的合理性以及对通货膨胀和就业的影响。进而从理论和实证上检验政府投资的效力,并为政府投资结构调整提供现实依据。结论表明:政府投资短期内显著拉动经济增长、提高通货膨胀率,但对就业和居民消费的作用有限;早期政府投资在医疗、教育和自主创新上投入较少,创新性行业拉动不足,其结构并不合理;新常态下的政府投资通过引入市场机制,有效优化投资结构;政府投资存在闲置资金进入虚拟经济的现象,具有导致房地产、资产泡沫的可能性。
The adjustment and optimization of our government investment structure determine its impact on the sustainability of economic growth under the New Normal. This article discusses the effectiveness of government investment,the reasonable structure of the investment plan,and the contribution that the government investment makes to the idle funds,inflation and employment by constructing a marcoeconomic model based on the investment. This article provides the theoretical and empirical evidence for the power of the government investment,as well as the restructure of the government investment. Through the historical simulation,the anti- historical simulation and the prediction of the model,the results of this article show that： The government investment drives economic growth and inflation significantly in short term,but has limit impact on the household consumption and the employment; The early government investment plan is not of a reasonable structure for stressing less emphasis on the health,education and innovation; While introducing the market mechanism,the government investment plan under the New Normal has been effectively optimized; There exist idle funds in the government investment entering the virtual economy,potentially causing real estate and asset bubbles.
出处
《经济评论》
CSSCI
北大核心
2016年第1期39-52,共14页
Economic Review
关键词
政府投资
财政政策
结构调整
宏观经济模型
Government Investment
Fiscal Policy
Structural Adjustment
Macroeconomic Model
