摘要
利用中国559个气象台站1961—2013年逐日气温观测资料,采用五日滑动平均、气候倾向率等气候统计诊断方法,结合GIS技术,分析气候变化下中国农业界限温度初终日、持续天数、积温的时空分布特征,比较不同保证率下各气候要素的变化及分布,研究农业界限温度的初终日、持续天数、积温的气候倾向率和变异系数空间分布,以期为充分利用气候资源、优化农业布局和作物引种提供科学依据。结果表明：1961—2013年中国农业界限温度初日提前、终日延后、持续日数增加、积温增加,变化幅度与纬度、地理等要素密切相关;不同农业界限温度（0、5、10、15、20℃）的初日平均在中国南、北部相差97-123 d、终日相差37-50 d、持续天数相差75-106 d、积温相差2081-2506℃·d;相邻两个农业界限温度初终日、持续天数和积温变化幅度分布在25.7-42.9 d、11.1-31.7 d、36.7-60.7 d和157-1221℃·d;随着保证率的增加,各地的初终日和积温分布均有不同程度的变化,其中长江中下游地区≥0℃的初日变化最明显,变幅达2.4-16.3 d,华南地区变化幅度最小,95%保证率及以下的变幅均小于1 d;1961—2013年中国农业界限温度初日、终日和积温的气候倾向率为-7.6-37.3、-47.1-40.9、-250-456.4 d·10 a-1,平均相对变率为0-146.0、4.8-24.5和1.2-196.2。
Using datasets of daily average temperature of 559 meteorological stations over China during 1961 and 2013, the spatiotemporal distribution of variations and trends for beginning day, ending day, accumulated temperature, and average duration days between neighboring tempera- tures of the agriculture critical temperature were studied with statistically diagnostic methods such as 5-day running mean, climatic tendency analysis as well as GIS tool. Also, the changes of different meteorological variables under different guarantee rates were studied. The characteristics of the climatic tendency rates and variation coefficients of the beginning day, ending day, accumulative temperature of the agriculture critical temperature were investigated to provide a scientific basis for making full use of climate resources, optimizing agricultural layout and crop introduction. The results showed that the beginning day and ending day shifted earlier and later, respectively; the duration became longer and accumulative temperature gradually increased from 1961 to 2013. The magnitude of variation was closely related to latitude and geographical features of research region. The variations of the beginning day under different agriculture critical temperatures （ i.e. 0, 5, 10, 15, and 20 ℃ ） were within the range of 97 to 123 days in northern and southern China, and the ending day, duration, and accumulative temperature were within the range of 37 to 50 days, 75 to 106 days, and 2081 to 2506 ℃· d, respectively. Additionally, the amplitude of the beginning day, ending day, duration, and accumulative temperature ranged from 25.7 to 42.9 days, 11.1 to 31.7 days, 36.7 to 60.7 days, and 157 to 1221 ℃·d, respectively in the ad- jacent regions with neighboring agriculture critical temperature. With the increase of guarantee rate, the beginning day, ending day, and accumulative temperature exhibited various changes in different areas. Over the Yangtze River valley, the change of beginning day above 0 ℃ was the most distinct and the magnitude could reach 2.4 to 16.3 days, while appeared slightest in South China with the magnitude was less than 1 day with the guarantee rate equal to or less than 95%. Climatic tendency rates of the beginning day, ending day, and accumulative temperature during 1961 and 2013 ranged from -7.6 to 37.3, -47.1 to 40.9, and -250 to 456 d · 10 a^-1, respectively; the values of their average relative variability ranged from 0 to 146.0, 4.8 to 24.5, and 1.2 to 196.2, respeetively.
出处
《生态学杂志》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2016年第2期489-498,共10页
Chinese Journal of Ecology
基金
浙江省科技厅公益性技术应用项目(2015C33055)
中国气象局气候变化专项(CCSF201427)
浙江省气象科技计划重点项目(2013ZD05
2015ZD09)资助
关键词
农业界限温度
时空变化
气候倾向率
平均相对变率
agriculture critical temperature
average relative variability. spatiotemporal variation
climatic tendency rate
