摘要
估算了1997-2012年中国各区域的碳排放强度,采用空间自相关分析方法和空间面板计量模型,实证分析了产业、人口空间集聚对区域碳排放强度的影响。研究结果表明:中国区域碳排放强度具有较强的空间自相关性,采用空间计量方法往往可以更好地解释中国区域碳排放强度的空间变化;中国区域碳排放强度受经济密度、大城市比重以及建成区比重的影响显著;在三区域划分标准下,除人口密度以外,经济密度、就业密度、城市化率、大城市比重和建成区比重,对东、中和西部地区的碳排放强度具有显著影响;在八区域划分标准下,经济密度的提升有利于优化区域碳排放强度,而就业密度、人口密度、城市化率和大城市比重在不同区域的影响效应具有明显差异,甚至相反。
Using the spatial autocorrelation analysis method and spatial panel econometric model,this paper estimates the carbon emission intensity of China from 1997 to 2012,and empirically analyzes the impact of spatial agglomeration of industry and population on China＇s regional carbon emission intensity.The results indicate as follows：there is a relatively strong spatial autocorrelation in China＇s regional carbon emission intensity;in most cases,the spatial econometrics method could be used to interpret this spatial change in China＇s regional carbon emission intensity better;China＇s regional carbon emission intensity is significantly influenced by economic intensity,big city proportion and built-up area proportion;under the standard of three major economic blocks,except population intensity,other factors,such as economic intensity,employment intensity,urbanization,big city proportion and built up proportion all have significant impact on the carbon emission intensity in China＇s eastern,central and western regions;under the standard of eight major economic blocks,the increase of economic intensity helps to optimize regional carbon emission intensity in China,whereas employment intensity,population intensity,urbanization and big city show noticeably different and even opposite impact in different regions.
出处
《技术经济》
CSSCI
北大核心
2016年第1期71-77,125,共8页
Journal of Technology Economics
基金
国家自然科学基金项目"天然气资源的经济安全重大问题与对策研究"(G0301)
关键词
产业集聚
人口集聚
碳排放
区域差异
industry agglomeration
population agglomeration
carbon emission
regional difference
