中国碳排放强度的区域差异与驱动因素——基于1995-2013年省际面板数据的实证分析被引量：11

Regional Difference Influence Factors of China's Carbon Intensity:Empirical Analysis Based on Provincial Panel Data from 1995 to 2013

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摘要探究碳强度的区域差异及其成因,对于中国制定差异化减排政策、实现2020年减排承诺及促进可持续发展,具有重要意义。在测度中国1995-2013年28个省份排放量基础上,利用泰尔指数测算碳强度的区域差异,并对碳强度省际差距进行结构分解。进一步地,结合可导性对数方差分解法,挖掘碳强度省际差距的动因,结果发现:(1)中国碳强度存在明显的区域差异,碳强度省际差异在样本期间大部分年份呈现扩大趋势;(2)碳强度省际差异主要源于区域内差异,但区域间差异对总差异的贡献率呈上升态势;(3)人均实际GDP是碳强度省际差异形成的首要因素,其他因素按照贡献由高到低依次是能源结构、人口结构、技术水平、产业结构,对外开放的贡献较低。 Analyzing regional difference of carbon intensity and the influence factors of this difference for Chi- na, has important significance for reasonable formulation of emission reduction policies, achieving the 2020 emis- sion reduction commitments and the sustainable development of China. Basing on estimating the quantity of emis- sions for 28 provinces of China covering the years from 1995 to 2013 ,this paper uses Theil index to investigate re- gional difference of carbon intensity, and decomposes inter - provincial differences of carbon emission intensity into between and within region components. Using extensive STIRPAT Model and a variance decomposition methodolo- gy, this paper empirically studies the causes of inter - provincial differences of carbon intensity. The results show that ：（ 1 ） The imbalance between regions is obvious, inter - provincial difference of carbon emission intensity shows an enlarging trend in fluctuation ; （ 2 ） According to the three zone standards, the inter - provincial difference of carbon emission intensity is mainly from the regional difference, but the contribution of the inter - regional differ- ence to the total difference is on the rise. The overall difference are mainly from the inter- regional differences in eight zones standards ; （ 3 ） The per capita income has the most important influence on the inter - provincial differ- ence of carbon emission intensity, followed by energy consumption structure, demographic factors, technology lev- el, industry structure, but explanation degree of opening to the outside world is low.

作者周杰琦韩颖

机构地区广东财经大学经济与贸易学院东北大学

出处《财经理论研究》 2016年第1期18-26,共9页 Journal of Finance and Economics Theory

基金教育部人文社会科学研究青年基金项目(15YJCZH242) 广东省普通高校人文社科研究项目(14GDQX04B76) 广东省教育厅国家级重大培育项目(2014GWXM018) 广东省打造理论粤军重大项目(2013A2) 国家自然科学基金项目(71173052)

关键词碳强度区域差异泰尔指数因素分解 carbon intensity regional difference Theil index factor decomposition

分类号 F205 [经济管理—国民经济]

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