摘要
随着轨道交通的快速发展,新线陆续建成并投入使用。为评估新线对既有线的影响,调整和优化运输组织,首先需要对既有站进出站客流进行精确预测。本文在综合考虑进出站客流自然变化规律与接入新线影响的基础上,提出接入新线后轨道交通既有站进出站客流预测模型。首先,基于时间序列的乘积差分自回归移动平均模型分析既有站客流自然变化规律;其次,引入站点可达性指标定量分析新线对既有站进出站客流的诱增效果,考虑新线对既有站的潜在分流影响,构建接入新线后既有站进出站客流预测模型;最后使用城轨交通自动检票系统采集的历史数据,以广州地铁为例对模型进行参数标定与检验。结果显示,本文提出的模型具有较好的预测精度,适于轨道网络拓扑结构变化后既有站进出站客流的预测。
With the rapid development of urban rail system,many new lines have been constructed and put into operation.In order to assess the impact of the new lines on existing lines and optimize transportation organization accordingly,accurate forecasting for the passenger flow entering and departing existing stations is required.This study proposed a forecasting model on passenger flow entering and departing existing urban rail stations after connection of new lines with existing lines,based on the analysis of the natural variation of passenger flow entering and departing existing urban rail stations and the impact of new lines on the existing stations.First,the natural variation of passenger flow entering and departing existing urban rail stations was analyzed based on the multiply ARIMA model.Second,taking into consideration of the possible diversion effect of the new line on existing stations,the site accessibility index was introduced to carry out quantitative analysis on the effects of the new line on induced passenger flow entering and departing existing stations,to establish the forecasting model on passenger flow entering and departing existing stations after connection of new lines.Finally,using the historical passenger flow data collected by AFC system of Guangzhou Metro,the proposed model was calibrated and examined.The results showed that the proposed model has better prediction accuracy and is more effectively applicable to the forecast of passenger flow entering and departing existing stations after the change of rail network topology.
出处
《铁道学报》
EI
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2016年第1期1-7,共7页
Journal of the China Railway Society
基金
国家重点基础研究发展计划(973计划)(2012CB725403-1)
关键词
城市轨道交通
可达性
接入新线
既有站
进出站客流预测
urban rail system
accessibility
new line access
existing urban railway stations
forecast of passenger flow entering and departing stations
