摘要
为研究清代民国河西走廊洪涝灾害特征和时空规律,通过系统整理和分析历史文献资料,提取出该时期该区域的洪涝灾害信息。在此基础上,运用一般统计方法分析河西走廊各等级洪涝灾害的发生特征,运用最小二乘法原理分析洪涝灾害发生的阶段性特点,用小波分析洪涝灾害发生的周期特征探讨洪涝灾害发生特征及其反映的气候变化。结果表明,该地区共发生洪涝灾害70次,平均4.4年发生一次。该地区洪涝灾害可分为4个等级,轻度洪涝、中度洪涝、大洪涝和特大洪涝,发生频率依次为17%、56%、23%和4%,该时期洪涝灾害以中度为主。时间上,洪涝灾害的发生有明显的阶段性,1645-1735年,1780-1820年,1850-1880年3个洪涝少发阶段。1735-1780年、1820-1850年,1920-1949年是3个洪涝多发阶段,存在7个重大洪涝灾害事件;整体上从清代到民国,洪涝灾害的发生从频次上看有逐渐增加的趋势。空间上,洪涝灾害频次呈现从东到西逐渐递减的态势。洪涝灾害在年代尺度上存在着20-25年,50-70年以及130-150年的3类周期变化规律,推测影响河西走廊地区洪涝灾害的发生可能与太平洋十年涛动及太阳活动周期相关。
Based on collecting, sorting out and analyzing the historical data, we extracted the flood disaster in- formation in the Hexi Corridor during the Qing dynasty and the Republic of China to discuss the climate change characteristics. The results show that 70 times of flood disasters occurred in the Hexi Corridor during the 306 years from the Qing Dynasty to the Republic of China, and flood disaster occurred once every 4.4 years in aver- age. Flood disaster level in the Hexi Corridor was divided into light, moderate, grave and extreme. Their occur- rence frequencies were 17%, 56%, 23% and 4% respectively. The main flood disasters were the moderate one. The occurring frequency of flood disasters was different. The periods of 1645 - 1735,1780 - 1820 and 1850 -1880 were the seldom- occurrence stages,and the periods of 1735 -1780,1820 -1850 and 1920 -1949 were the frequent -occurrence stages. There were seven flood climate events during this periods. From the Qing Dy- nasty to the Republic of China, floods occurrenc showed an upward trend fluctuation on the whole. Spatially, the flood disasters decreased from the east to the west due to irrational exploitation and the geography reason. This research found that flood disasters in the Hexi Corridor in the Qing dynasty and the Republic of China had inter - deeadal oscillations like 20 - 25a, 50 - 70a and 130 - 150a. It might be related to the Pacific ten years oscil- lation and the solar activity cycle.
出处
《干旱区资源与环境》
CSSCI
CSCD
北大核心
2016年第1期60-65,共6页
Journal of Arid Land Resources and Environment
基金
中国科学院知识创新群体项目(KZZD-EW-04-05-01)
中国科学院寒区旱区环境与工程研究所冰冻圈科学国家重点实验室自主课题(SKLCS-ZZ-2012-01-02)
国家自然科学基金创新研究群体项目(41121001
41273010)
中国科学院国家外国专家局创新团队国际合作伙伴计划资助
关键词
河西走廊
清代民国时期
洪涝灾害
气候变化
时空特征
the Hexi corridor
Qing dynasty and the Republic of China
flood disaster
climate change
tempo- ral and spatial characteristics
