摘要
采用线性回归、Daniel和Mann-Kendall检验法,分析长汀地区1965-2013年的气温及降水变化趋势,并选取屏南地区做对比研究,解释长汀地区气象因子变化的原因.结果表明采用这3种方法进行气温、降水量变化趋势分析,得出的结论基本一致,即长汀地区1965—2013年气温呈增长趋势,且增长显著;1965—1989年降水量处于持续减少状态,从1990年开始增加,2000年以后增加趋势趋于缓慢.Mann-Kendall突变检验显示:长汀地区在2005年发生气温突变,2005年以后气温呈上升趋势,并于2008年达到显著增加水平;而对照地区屏南的气温突变发生在1994年,并在2000年以后气温呈显著上升状态.表明整体上长汀地区的温度和降水的变化趋势与对照地区(屏南)相近,但存在突变点提前或滞后的现象.说明人为因素对当地植被和生态环境造成了影响,进而影响了当地的温度和降水等区域气象因子.
In order to predict local climate for agriculture and ecosystem restoration in long run,linear regression analysis,Daniel trend test and Mann-Kendall mutation test were applied to analyze data on temperature and precipitation during 1965- 2013 in Changting( a typical erosive county in West Fujian) and Pingnan( a forested county in Northeast Fujian). Pingnan was used as a control region to reveal the possible reason for climate change in Changting. In contrast with an uprising trend on temperature in Changting during 1965- 2013,local precipitation continously dropped from 1965 to 1989,increased after 1990 then slowed down after 2000. According to Mann-Kendall test,Changting temperature increased since 2005 and at a higher rate after 2008. On the contrary,temperature mutation of Pingnan occurred in 1994,then the temperature increased faster after 2000. It could be moderately indicated that trend of temperature and precipitation was similar between Changting and Pingnan but the mutation time shifted between two regions. Differences in mutation time was very likely attributed to human activities that altered local vegetation condition and ecology environment,which indirectly affect local temperature and precipitation.
出处
《福建农林大学学报（自然科学版）》
CSCD
北大核心
2016年第1期77-83,共7页
Journal of Fujian Agriculture and Forestry University:Natural Science Edition
基金
福建省自然科学基金资助项目(2015J05049)
福建省教育厅资助项目(JK2014012)
保险精算实验室基金资助项目(118310010)
关键词
气温
降水量
线性回归
Daniel及M-K检验法
突变检验
temperature and precipitation
linear regression analysis
Daniel trend test
Mann-Kendall mutation test
mutation test
