摘要
中国的对外直接投资能够促进出口吗?现有文献基本都得到了肯定的结论。在对这些文献进行整理的基础上,本文尝试修正变量选取、模型设定、估计方法等方面的不足,使用2003-2014年中国对155国的对外直接投资与出口贸易面板数据重新检验这一命题。实证结果表明,总样本中对外直接投资对出口的影响弹性最大仅为0.073,且不显著;分样本检验揭示,中国对发达国家的投资轻微替代出口,对发展中国家的投资轻微促进出口;但这些影响在控制个体固定效应后都不显著。从动态趋势来看,尽管对外直接投资对贸易的影响逐年偏向出口促进,但投资存量与贸易流量间巨大的量级差距使对外直接投资对出口增长的贡献仍然较小。
Can Chinese outward foreign direct investment promote export？ Most papers have come to positive conclusions. Based on reviewing these papers, this paper contributes by correcting model misspecification, wrong variable selection and estimation methods which are prevalent in existing studies,and reexamines the relationship using panel data from 2003 to 2014. The results indicate that. on average, the point estimate of the elasticity between Chinese outward foreign direct investment and export trade is at most 0. 073, and it＇s not statistically significant. Sub-sample regressions show that, Chinese investment in developed economies slightly substitutes export while investment in developing economies complements export. But these effects disappear when country specific effects are controlled. Year-by-year regressions show that, the complementary effect of OFDI on export is on a steady rise. But if we take the regression coefficients and the quantitative difference between OFDI and export into consideration, the effect is indeed negligible.
出处
《财贸经济》
CSSCI
北大核心
2016年第2期100-113,共14页
Finance & Trade Economics
基金
国家社会科学基金"新结构经济学的视角下新常态经济发展的动力与机制研究"(15CJL025)
北京大学新结构经济学研究中心新结构经济学专项研究基金
关键词
对外直接投资
出口
促进效应
替代效应
Outward Foreign Direct Investment（OFDI）, Export, Complementary Effect, Substitution Effect
