摘要
随着城市化进程的加快,我国城市规模不断膨胀,超过1 000万的超大城市不断涌现,城市人口规模过大、增长过快以及带来的城市问题引起社会各界的关注。北京作为一个人口超过2 000万的超大城市,不仅具有超大城市的一般特征,而且具有首都所在城市的特点。本文在厘清北京人口增长机制的基础上,采用系统动力学方法,通过政策模拟,考察不同政策导向对未来北京市人口增长趋势的影响,得到以下结论:1如果保持当前的经济增长速度,并按当前的生产技术水平以及产业结构变化趋势发展,未来北京人口规模将持续快速增长,到2030年将突破3 000万人,2050年将接近5 000万人,城市面临巨大的人口压力。2单纯通过产业结构升级对调控人口作用有限。3适当放缓经济增长速度以及大力提高劳动生产率可以有效控制人口的快速增长,挤出大量的低端劳动力,人口调控效果明显。4户籍制度的适度放开在一定程度上减少了外来人口规模,但对人口总量的减少并没有起到作用。5与单纯采用一种政策调整相比,多种调控政策并举调控人口的效果更佳。由此得到以下几点启示:首先,每个城市都应该有自己的功能定位,决不能搞"大而全"和千城一面,尤其不能将城市经济增长速度和总量作为城市发展的主要目标甚至唯一目标,不顾后果和不择手段地追求GDP。否则城市人口规模的无序扩大就很难避免,也很难治理。对于北京而言,发挥其政治、文化、国际交往以及科技创新中心的首都功能,大力发展现代服务业,提高劳动生产率,优化产业结构才有利于人口的有序发展。另外,政府在人口调控方面必须有所作为,但也不能对人口调控进行大包大揽,取代市场。政府要顺应经济和社会发展的规律,顺势而为,出台相应的系列综合性调控政策。只有这样,才能对人口调控起到更好的效果。
With the acceleration of urbanization,the urban scale of China continues to expand. The oversize and rapid growth of metropolises’ population and urban problems caused by it have aroused the extensive attention from society. As a metropolis with a population of over twenty million,Beijing not only has the general characteristics of metropolises,but also has the features of capital cities. This paper takes Beijing as an example,applying system dynamics method to simulate tendencies of the population from 2010 to2050 with different policy options on the basis of clarifying the mechanism of population growth and analyzing the effect of policies on population. We obtained the following results： 1 The population size of Beijing will continue to grow rapidly in future（ by 2030 the population will exceed 30 million and will be close to 50 million in 2050） based on the condition that the economy will increase at the current rate and the level of production and technology and industrial structure develop at the current trends. Beijing will face huge demographic pressure. 2 The effect of population regulation is limited simply by upgrading the industrial structure. 3 It is effective to control the population rapid growth by appropriately decelerating the economic growth rate and greatly improve labor productivity,which will help moving out many low-end labors so as to achieve significant effect. 4 Appropriate relaxing restrictions of Hukou System（ permanent residence register system） can reduce the scale of floating population,while it is with limited function to reduce the total population. 5 Compared with the implementation of a single regulatory policy,regulation effect of a variety of population control policies is more pronounced. The implications we got： Firstly,every city should have its own functional orientation instead of pursuing the large,complete and same development model,In particular,cities cannot make the economic growth as the main goal or even the only goal of urban development,and pursue GDP recklessly and unscrupulously. Otherwise,it will be hard to avoid and control the sprawl of population. For Beijing,it’s only truly to play the role as political,cultural and international exchanges of the country as well as the scientific and technological innovation center with developing modern service industry and improving labor productivity and optimizing the industrial structure which will achieve the goal of proper development of population. In addition,the government must do something but not to take on all things even replace market in the regulation of the population. The government should follow the law of economic and social development and make series of corresponding and comprehensive regulation and control policies. Only then can the effect of population regulation be better and more significant.
出处
《中国人口·资源与环境》
CSSCI
CSCD
北大核心
2016年第2期170-176,共7页
China Population,Resources and Environment
基金
北京市属高等学校创新团队建设与教师职业发展计划项目(编号:IDHT20130523)
北京市哲学社会科学规划项目"北京市的人口增长和调控对策研究"(编号:12SHB001)
2014年首都经济贸易大学学术新人计划(编号:CUEB2014003)阶段性成果
