摘要
文章基于我国2001-2012年31个省份的面板数据,以贸易引力理论为框架,运用空间动态面板模型,分析了时空效应下的我国蔬菜区域流通的时空相关性与影响因素,结果发现:蔬菜区域流通具有显著的时空相关性,存在较强的时间动态惯性和空间关联特征,表现在地区自身发展存在连续性;相邻地区存在互补效应;蔬菜输出地区蔬菜生产劳动力、土地、输入地区城镇总人口数以及农产品流通效率对蔬菜区域流通有正向影响,蔬菜输出地区农业生产资料价格指数、蔬菜生产价格指数对蔬菜流通有负向影响。其中,代表需求潜力的城镇人口数对蔬菜流通的影响最大。
Based on the spatial dynamic panel model and the panel data of 31 provinces during 2001-2012, the frame of trade gravity theory is adopted to analyze the influencing factors and spatio-temporal relevance of the regional trade on vegetables in China. The results show that the regional trade of China＇s vegetables has significant relevance to time and space： dynamic inertia effect in time and regional correlation characteristics in space; specifically, it shows continuity in its own development and mutual influence in neighbor areas with complementary effects. Meanwhile, the positive factors correlated to regional trade of China＇s vegetables are the cabors in vegetable production, the total population of the urban demanders and circulation efficiency of agricultural products while such factors as price indices of means of agricultural production, vegetables producer price index have negative effect on the circulation of the vegetables; among all, the population of the urban areas that represent the demand potentials has the greatest effect on the trade of vegetables.
出处
《商业经济与管理》
CSSCI
北大核心
2016年第2期18-25,共8页
Journal of Business Economics
基金
现代农业产业技术体系北京市果类蔬菜产业创新团队项目(BAIC01-2016)
北京市社科基金重点项目(15JGA020)
高等学校博士点专项科研基金项目(20120008110032)
公益性行业科研专项(201103001)
