摘要
根据太白山保护区周边15个气象站1959-2013年以及保护区内11个高山气象站2012-2014年的数据,采用Kriging插值法、一元线性回归分析法、Mann-Kendall突变检验法等,结合Arc GIS分析太白山保护区的气温变化趋势和突变特征,并对比保护区南北坡和高海拔区域(海拔≥2800m)与保护区整体的气温变化差异。结果表明:(1)1959-2013年太白山保护区的气温呈波动上升趋势,线性倾向率为0.329℃·10a-1(P<0.05)。气温变化空间差异明显,东南部和西部地区气温上升趋势显著(P<0.05或P<0.01),最高达0.383℃·10a-1;四季气温均呈上升趋势,冬季升温最快,春季最慢。(2)M-K检验表明,1998年前后保护区整体气温发生增温突变。突变后气温上升加快,上升趋势达显著水平的区域为86.76%。(3)空间差异分析显示,55a来太白山保护区北坡年平均气温和升温速率明显低于南坡,北坡和南坡年平均气温线性倾向率分别为0.247和0.291℃·10a-1。高海拔区域的年平均气温线性倾向率为0.244℃·10a-1,低于保护区整体,其气温突变发生在2001年,突变前东南部升温最快,突变后西部升温速率降低,中部地区升温明显加快。
Based on the data of 15 meteorological stations from the period of 1959 to 2013 around Taibai Mountain and the data of 11 alpine meteorological stations from the period of 2012 to 2014 inside Taibai Mountain protected area, authors used the Kriging, linear regression and Mann-Kendall mutation test method combined with ArcGIS to analyze the variation trend and mutation characteristics of temperature in the protected area, and contrasted the differences in climate change between southern and northern aspect of the conservation area, high altitude area （altitude≥2800m） and overall the protected area of Taibai Mountain. The results showed： （1）there was an upward trend of annual mean temperature in the protected area of Taibai Mountain from1959 to 2013, and linear trend rate was 0.329℃.10y-1. Spatial differences of temperature variation was very significant, southeastern and western regions showed a significant warming trend （P〈0.05, P〈0.01）, up to 0.383℃-10y-1. Every seasonal mean temperature was increased; winter warming rate was the fastest while spring was the slowest. （2）According to result of M-K test, a warm abrupt change of the annual mean temperature in overall protected area was occurred in 1998. After 1998, temperature variation rate was increasing rapidly. The proportion of the Area＇s significant warming trend reached 86.76%. （3）Analysis of spatial difference indicated： annual mean temperature and change rate of northern aspect was lower than southern aspect in the protected area of Taibai Mountain. In latest 55 years, their linear trend rate were 0.247 ~C. 10y-land 0.291 ~C. 10y-1. Temperature linear trend rate of high altitude area（0.244 ℃. 10y-1 ） was lower than overall protected area. A warm mutation of the annual mean temperature was appeared in 2001.Temperature of southeastern region raised fast before 2001. Warming rate of western region was declined while central region＇s was significantly accelerated after 2001.
出处
《中国农业气象》
CSCD
北大核心
2016年第1期1-10,共10页
Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology
基金
林业公益性行业科研专项"秦岭天然林对气候变化的时空响应及管理对策"(201304309)
