摘要
人口迁移在三大人口变动中最活跃,对人口分布影响最大。然而,文章通过对省际人口迁移规模分布、迁移强度分布、人口迁移流分布的考察,发现中国改革开放以来的省际人口迁移分布具有明显的顽健性。胡焕庸线历时80年,特别是改革开放以来持续频繁的人口迁移仍未能改变中国人口分布的基本格局,影响其稳定性。中国人口分布的基本格局及胡焕庸线,主要决定于地理位置固定不变的第一自然;人口迁移分布的顽健性与第一自然的决定作用密切相关。只要第一自然不变化,中国的人口分布及胡焕庸线就会保持高度稳定,人口迁移分布也不太可能失去顽健性而导致中国人口分布基本格局及胡焕庸线的改变。
Migration has been most active among three major population movements and affective to population distribution. However,this paper first finds that the pattern of China's inter-provincial migration is robust since China's reforming and opening based on the analysis on the distribution of inter-provincial migration scale, intensity and population flow. Therefore, the continual migration in the past 80 years, especially since China's reforming and opening, has not changed the basic feature of China's population distribution and has no effective influence on the robustness of Heihe-Tengchong Line. The basic pattern of China's population distribution and Heihe-Tengchong Line mainly depend on the constant geographic position as shown in the First Nature Rule. Without any change of the First Nature Rule, China's population distribution and Heihe-Tengchong Line remain highly stable, and the migration is unlikely to lose the robustness.
出处
《中国人口科学》
CSSCI
北大核心
2016年第1期2-13,126,共12页
Chinese Journal of Population Science
基金
国家科技支撑计划课题"流动人口对区域发展的影响评估及决策支持集成平台示范应用"(编号:2012BAI32B07)的阶段性成果
