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鲁甸“8.03”地震牛栏江红石岩堰塞湖水文预报误差及成因分析 被引量:9

Lu Dian “8. 03” earthquake Niulan river Hong Shiyan Landslide dam hydrological prediction error and cause analysis
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摘要 红石岩堰塞湖永久性整治期间,水文情报预报信息对于确保施工安全有着重要意义。为进一步提高预报精度,阐述了红石岩堰塞湖的形成、规模、治理以及牛栏江流域资料条件、应急监测站点布局等,简要介绍了堰塞湖各水文预报方案编制情况,分析堰塞湖应急排险、后续处置期间实时发布的222期水文预报精度,得出了入湖水量预报精度为丙级,其余堰塞湖水位、库容等5个项目预报精度在乙级以上的结论。研究误差成因并提出了进一步提高预报精度的措施建议,为堰塞湖永久性整治期间的水文情报预报工作提供参考。 During Hong Shiyan Landslide dam permanent renovation, hydrology information forecast information to ensure the construction safety has important significance. In order to further improve the prediction accuracy, expounds Hong Shiyan Landslide dam formation, scale, management of Landslide dam and Niulan river basin information conditions, such as cmer- gency monitoring site layout, briefly introduces Landslide dam each hydrological forecast scheme establishment situation. a- nalysis Landslide dam during the emergency, subsequent disposal zone release 222 hydrological forecast precision of reai-time, into the water volume forecast accuracy is obtained for class c, 5 projects such as the rest of Landslide dam water level, stor- age capacity of forecast accuracy in series above conclusions. The error causes and propose the measures to further improve the prediction accuracy, for Landslide dam hydrology information forecast during the renovation of permanent work to provide the reference.
出处 《水利水电技术》 CSCD 北大核心 2016年第1期6-11,共6页 Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering
关键词 水文预报 误差成因 改进措施 红石岩堰塞湖 鲁甸“8.03”地震 Hydrological forecast Error causes Improvement measures Hong Shiyan Landslide dam LuDian“8.03”earth-quake
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