摘要
自从2008年金融危机爆发以来,有不少学者都发现服务贸易受世界经济冲击的影响程度要远低于货物贸易。文章基于42个国家在1982~2011年间的面板数据,实证研究了影响服务贸易的主要因素。研究发现,各变量对不同国家服务贸易进出口的长期影响存在明显差异。服务贸易进出口都表现出较为明显的惯性作用,滞后一期的服务贸易进出口变量回归系数在统计上都比较显著。货物贸易发展对服务贸易进出口产生了重要的推动作用。然而,对于广大发展中国家和新兴经济体而言,商品贸易发展对服务贸易出口的促进程度比较低,远低于其对主要发达国家服务贸易出口的影响程度。汇率变动对服务贸易发展具有一定影响,但是其影响程度低于收入水平变量。
Many researchers find that the negative effects that come from the financial crisis on trade in service are far more less than that of goods trade. This result means that world economic activity has less influence on trade in service than on the goods. This paper studies the factors that affect trade in service by using 42 countries＇ panel data between 1982 and 2011. The results indicate that the export and import of service trade has obvious self-influence effects. The regression coefficients of lag terms are statistically notable. The results also prove that goods trade has important promotion effects on service trade. However, this effect in developing countries is relatively lower than that of developed countries. The exchange rate has moderate effects on service trade. This paper does not find strong effects that world economic activity has on trade in service.
出处
《国际经贸探索》
CSSCI
北大核心
2016年第2期4-19,共16页
International Economics and Trade Research
关键词
服务贸易
进出口
动态面板数据
trade in service
import and export
dynamic panel data
