摘要
2012年刑事诉讼法明确了逮捕适用中社会危险性的衡量标准。有无采取取保候审不足以防止发生的社会危险性是审查逮捕社会危险性评估需要解决的核心问题,实践中有的办案机关通过细化各项风险指标并进行风险等级评估的方法来决定是否逮捕。在理论框架上,审查逮捕社会危险性要件,可以从人身危险性、社会危害性和诉讼可控性等层面进行评估。社会学上的风险评估理论和统计学上的数学建模理论为构建审查逮捕社会危险性评估量化模型提供了方法,SPSS统计分析软件为构建评估量化模型提供了工具。量化模型的意义在于,将影响逮捕适用的各项因素及其作用大小加以量化,并参照风险位阶表,得出应否逮捕的意见,以供办案机关参考。
The Criminal Procedure Law clearly stipulated the criteria of reviewing the social risk in using the arrest measure. Whether the guarantor pending trial is not enough to prevent the social risk is,some judicial organs decided whether or not to arrest the suspects or the accused by refining the risk indicators and assessing the risk level in practice. On the theoretical framework,the social risk elements of reviewing arrest can be evaluated from the personal indicators,the social harmfulness indicators and the litigation control indicators,etc. The risk assessment theory of sociology and the mathematical modeling theory of statistics provide the theoretical methodology for building the quantitative risk assessment model of arrest reviewing,and the SPSS provides a tool for building the quantitative assessment model. The significance of the quantitative assessment model is to quantize all the factors affecting the application of arrest and conclude whether or not need to arrest the suspect or the accused by comparing the risk status table,and then offer the conclusion to the judicial organs for reference.
出处
《政法论坛》
CSSCI
北大核心
2016年第2期70-80,共11页
Tribune of Political Science and Law
基金
国家"2011计划"司法文明协同创新中心研究成果
中国政法大学优秀人才引进科研启动经费资助
关键词
逮捕必要性
评估模型
数学建模
社会危险性
概率论
Arrest Necessity
Evaluation Model
Mathematical Modeling
the Social Risk
Probability Theory
