摘要
机场货邮吞吐量是机场决策规划和发展的基础。传统的单一预测由于精确度低等各种缺陷,已不能满足越来越高的要求,为了准确合理预测航空货邮吞吐量,提出了在各单一预测模型的基础上,利用熵值法建立组合预测模型的方法,并对西安咸阳国际机场货邮吞吐量进行组合预测。实例表明,熵值法组合预测模型与单一预测模型相比,实用性更强,预测精度也有所提高。选用马尔科夫链模型对熵值法组合模型预测结果进行修正处理,增加预测结果的可信度。
The airport cargo throughput is the foundation of airport decision planning and development. The traditional single forecast due to the low precision and other defects, can not meet the higher and higher requirements. In order to accurately predict aviation cargo reasonable throughput, on the basis of the every single forecast model, combination forecast model is established by using the entropy method, and the throughput of cargo in Xi＇an Xianyang international airport is done combination forecast. Instances show that the entropy method combined forecasting model compared to single prediction model is more practical, and the prediction accuracy is also improved. With the markov chain model, the prediction results of entropy value method combination model are modified,increasing the reliability of prediction results.
出处
《计算机工程与应用》
CSCD
北大核心
2016年第6期122-126,共5页
Computer Engineering and Applications
基金
陕西省自然科学基金(No.2012GQ8050)
关键词
灰色GM(1
1)模型
组合预测
熵值法
马尔科夫链
grey forecasting method
combination forecasting
entropy method
Markov chain model
