摘要
基于新凯恩斯模型对中国货币政策操作规范的选择进行了动态模拟。研究发现,货币政策操作规范的选择主要取决于折现率、中央银行的产出权重、价格刚性以及成本推动型冲击的自相关系数。在全样本空间内,四种参数的模拟结果均显示规则能够为中国央行带来更大的收益。通过对样本进行划分,分别模拟汇改前后货币政策操作规范的选择发现,汇改前央行货币政策按相机抉择行事更优,而汇改后规则的福利损失值相较于全样本进一步降低。建议中国央行在货币政策操作中应逐步降低相机抉择成分比重,提高规则成分比重,从而减弱相机抉择对宏观经济的不利影响。
Based on the New Keynes model,this paper simulates the operation norms choice of monetary policy in China. The research shows that the operation norms of monetary policy mainly depend on the discount rate,output weights of the Central Bank,price rigidity and coefficient of autocorrelation of the Cost- push shock. In the whole sample space,the simulated result of the four parametes shows that discretion can bring more gain for our Central Bank. However,after simulating the operation regulation of monetary policy,we find that Discretion is better before the reform of the exchange rate regime,while Rule is better after the reform of the exchange rate regime. So this paper suggests that our Central Bank should decrease the proportion of discretion,as well as promote the proportion of rules so as to ruduce the adverse impact of discretion on the macro- economy.
出处
《金融经济学研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2016年第1期49-59,共11页
Financial Economics Research
基金
国家社会科学基金一般项目(14BJY187)
教育部哲学社会科学重大课题攻关项目(12JZD029)
