摘要
本文运用可计算一般均衡模型,结合TPP公布文本中对商品和服务贸易自由化措施对TPP的经济效果进行评估,同时比较分析了TPP条件下RCEP和亚太自贸区商品贸易自由化的经济效果。结果表明,TPP的发展中成员在商贸自由化中获得的相对收益较大,发达成员则在服贸自由化中相对收益更大;TPP的商品和服务贸易自由化会对其他APEC成员造成负面冲击;东亚国家可以通过RCEP来化解TPP的冲击;亚太自贸区更能代表多数APEC成员的利益。
This paper evaluates the economic effects of merchandise trade liberalization and service trade lib- eralization performed by TPP using CGE model incorporated with the protocols of TPP. This paper also com- pares the economic effects of merchandise trade liberalization by RCEP and FTAAP. The results show that devel- oping countries in TPP benefit more in merchandise trade liberalization while developed countries in TPP benefit more in service trade liberalization. TPP will decrease the welfare of other APEC countries. RCEP will help East Asia countries overcome the shock of TPP while FTAAP will benefit most of the APEC countries.
出处
《亚太经济》
CSSCI
北大核心
2016年第2期51-57,共7页
Asia-Pacific Economic Review
基金
中国-东盟区域发展协同创新中心科研专项和教育部长江学者和创新团队发展计划联合资助(编号:CWZ201506)
天津社会科学研究规划资助项目“垂直专业化与天津对外贸易的快速发展”(编号:TJYY11-2-080)
南开大学亚洲研究中心项目“亚太自由贸易区研究”
(编号AS1412)
