摘要
基于季节性易逝品短销售期和短保质期的"双短"特性,其高额利润通常伴随着较大需求不确定性,而且一旦错过销售季节,其极低的残值将导致巨大经济损失与资源浪费.折价预售策略将鼓励消费者提前购买,经销商也可通过预售产品数量的获知来提升市场需求预测的准确性.但消费者在享受预购折价优惠的同时,也可能承担未见到实物产品即进行购买的期望价值损失.此时,经销商若采取回购,则是对消费者利益的直接保障,而在产生回购成本的同时,也可以通过提高预售价格与降低实物订货量等方式带来新增利润.考虑策略型消费者行为,对预售与回购联合策略和单一预售策略进行对比,构建两种策略下的经销商收益模型,并得出相应的最优预售价格与最优订购量.研究发现,当商品单位成本较大或回购价格较低时,预售与回购联合策略的实施能够使经销商获得更优收益,且最优预售价格高于单一预售策略,最优订货量则低于单一预售策略,从而为经销商营销策略选择进行决策支持.
As a result of the short sales period andshort life-cycle,the large profit of seasonal perishable products is usually accompanied by great demand uncertainty. Once missing the sales season,their low residual value will bring huge economic losses and resource waste. The advance selling strategy with a discount will encourage consumers to buy in advance. Dealers can also enhance the accuracy of market demand forecast by the amount of pre-order. While enjoying preferential prices,consumers also bear expected value losses as a result of purchasing before seeing the physical product. If the seller adopts the buy-back strategy,the consumers can benefit. The retailer＇s profits could be improved by increasing the advance selling price and reducing the order quantity with reasonable buy-back costs. Considering the strategic consumers,this paper compared the joint strategy of advance selling and buy-back with the solo advance selling strategy. It established profit models and obtained the optimal advance selling prices and order quantities. It also found that when the unit order cost is high or the buy-back price is low,the joint strategy can bring the retailer more profits. Under the joint strategy,the optimal advance selling price is higher and the optimal order quantity is less. These conclusions can help retailers in making marketing strategies.
出处
《管理科学学报》
CSSCI
北大核心
2016年第2期74-84,共11页
Journal of Management Sciences in China
基金
教育部高等学校博士学科点专项科研基金资助项目(20110032120085)
关键词
策略型消费者
季节性易逝品
预售
回购
联合决策
strategic consumer
seasonal perishable products
advance-selling
buy-back
joint strategy
