摘要
在水驱油田开发中,预测含水率随开发时间的变化规律具有重要的意义。为了提高油田含水率的预测精度,克服单一预测模型的不足,基于对Logistic模型、Gompertz模型和Usher模型特征的综合分析,以预测误差平方和最小为准则确定最优加权系数,建立了水驱油田含水率的最优组合预测模型。通过实例应用表明,最优组合预测模型相对于单一预测模型具有更高的精度,可以用来预测油田含水率,指导水驱油田的开发。
In the development of water flood oilfield, it is significant to predict change regularity of water cut with development time. In order to improve water cut prediction accuracy and overcome the shortcomings of single forecasting model, this paper com- prehensive analyzed the features of Logistic model, Gompertz model and Usher model to predict the minimum error sum of squares and determine optimum weighting coefficient, thereby establishing optimal combination forecasting model of water cut of water flood field. Field application shows that, compared with single prediction model, the optimal combination forecasting model has higher accuracy, which can predict water cut and guide the development of water flood oilfield.
出处
《油气藏评价与开发》
CSCD
2016年第2期11-13,18,共4页
Petroleum Reservoir Evaluation and Development
基金
国家重大科技专项"大型油气田及煤层气开发"(2011ZX0501-005)
关键词
水驱油田
预测
含水率
组合模型
water flood oilfield, prediction, water cut, combination model
