摘要
随着新区投产、开发调整和三次采油等方案的实施,实际油藏的产量变化曲线可能出现"双峰"形态,常规的Arps产量递减分析方法和以广义翁氏模型为代表的全程产量预测模型难以准确地描述具有双峰分布特征的产量变化规律。针对不同的单峰产量分布形态,以Weibull模型为基础,引入了不同单峰分布概率密度函数及加权因子,建立了具双峰形态的二重二参数Weibull混合分布模型。通过对双峰产量变化曲线进行处理,运用图解法对参数进行估计,求得了二重二参数Weibull混合分布模型的5个未知参数。实例计算结果表明:该方法计算结果与实际数据非常吻合,具有较高的精度。该方法在类似的具有双峰分布特征的油田产量预测中具有很好的应用前景。
With the implement of new area commissioning, development adjustment and tertiary oil recovery technique, the real reservoir production curves may appear bimodal distribution characteristics. The conventional Arps production scale down analysis and the prediction model represented by generalized Weng＇ s model are difficult to accurately describe the bimodal distribution characteristics. For the different unimodal production distribution shapes and based on Weibull model, different unimodal distribution probability density function and weighting factors are introduced, and then a double two parameter Weibull distribution model is set up. Through the treatment of bimodal production curves, the graphical method is used to estimate the parameters, and five unknown parameters of double two parameter Weibull distribution are obtained. Example calculation indicates that prediction result is close to the actual data with high accuracy degree, and this method has good application prospect for production prediction of similar oil fields with bimodal distribution characteristics.
出处
《油气藏评价与开发》
CSCD
2016年第2期14-18,共5页
Petroleum Reservoir Evaluation and Development
基金
重庆市自然科学基金项目(cstc2015jcyj A90022)
关键词
双峰分布
Weibull模型
图解法
产量预测
bimodal distribution, Weibull model, graphical method, production prediction
