摘要
基于1995-2014年火灾统计数据,利用空间格局分析和回归分析对火灾发生频率与经济因素的时空关系进行研究,得到了相关模型。结果表明,二者的关联性受时空因素的变化影响。时间上,中国火灾发生率与经济因素呈"N"型曲线关系,说明火灾发生率随着经济发展表现出"增-减-增"的趋势;空间上,火灾发生率与城市和省域经济的关系呈倒"U"型曲线关系,表明随着区域人均GDP的增长,火灾发生率表现出先增后降的趋势。根据拟合结果,从经济拐点的角度,讨论了中国与国外发达国家火灾发生率与经济因素相关性存在差异的原因,并得到中国火灾发生率可能继续增加的趋势。
Based on the fire statistics from 1995 to 2014,the relationships between the fire occurrence rate and the economic factors are studied by using spatial statistical analysis and regression analysis. The results show that the relationships are influenced by the spatial and temporal factors. From the time,the correlation between the fires of China and the per capita GDP fit a shape of N curve. The fire frequency firstly increases along with development of the per capita GDP,and then decrease. However,the fire frequency again shows a growth trend after the per capita GDP exceed a specific value. From the perspective of provinces and cities,there is an inverse U-shaped curve between the fire frequency and the economy. We explain why the relationship between fire frequency and economy is different between China and developed countries. The research findings reflect the objective laws of the fire occurrence rates,and provide important basis for the analysis and forecast of fires.
出处
《灾害学》
CSCD
2016年第2期111-115,共5页
Journal of Catastrophology
基金
公安部天津消防研究所基本科研业务经费项目(2015SJ-A-04)
关键词
火灾发生率
经济因素
回归分析
时空
火灾研判
fire occurrence rate
economic factors
regression analysis
space-time
research and judgment
