摘要
粮食安全关系着国计民生。本文以1994～2014年的相关统计数据为基础,分析20年间我国粮食播种面积、人口和粮食产量变化情况,研究我国31个省（区、市）的粮食盈缺情况和粮食安全时空格局,利用相关模型对我国未来10年的粮食安全形势进行预测。我国未来10年人口将持续增长,耕地面积将继续减少,但全国粮食总产和人均粮食占有都将小幅增加;省际粮食安全差异将进一步拉大,缺粮省份现状不会得到立即改观,要想保证本省粮食安全,仍需大量调入粮食。总体来看,我国粮食安全形势依然严峻。
Food security relationship with national economy and people＇s livelihood. In this paper,accord-ing to the relative statistic data of the 1994~2014,on the basis of analysis for 20 years in our country the ar-ea sown to grain,population and grain production changes,studied China＇s 31 provinces（autonomous re-gions and municipalities） food surplus situation and food security in time and space structure. Later,usingthe correlation model to our country food security situation over the next 20 years is forecasted,and get thefollowing conclusion：in the next 10 years in our country＇s population will continue to grow,arable land willcontinue to decrease,but the national grain production and per capita grain possession will be slightly in-creased;provincial food safety differences between will further widening,food-deficit province status quowill not immediately change,in order to ensure food security,the province still needs a lot of a food. Over-all,China＇s food security situation is still grim.
出处
《人口学刊》
CSSCI
北大核心
2016年第3期29-38,共10页
Population Journal
基金
国家社会科学基金重大课题:农村内部土地制度改革及其相关财政
行政改革方案和政策组合(11&ZD037)
贵州省人文社会科学重点研究基地贵州大学喀斯特地区发展战略研究中心项目:喀斯特地区粮食生产技术效率和全要素生产率研究(Karst2016S08)
贵州大学人文社科重点特色学科重大项目:农村土地资本化研究(GDZT12007)
关键词
粮食安全
时空格局
粮食盈缺情况
粮食产量
安全形势预测
Food Security
the Pattern of Time and Space
Food Deficiency Situation
Food Production
the Security Situation Prediction
