摘要
在尝试对新常态经济内涵进行量化的基础上,运用指数分解法和索洛余数法分别测算了北京市经济新常态期间技术创新带来的分产业节能量、耗能量以及能源反弹效应,系统评价了技术创新对能源消耗的影响,进一步预测了新常态下北京市2015-2020年发展趋势,以期为北京市及全国经济发展与节能减排工作提供理论依据和科学思路。研究结果表明:1996-2013年,北京市逐渐由新常态经济的"潜伏期"进入新常态期;希克斯中性技术创新对能源消耗的影响主要体现在第二、第三产业;2000年之后技术创新节能量迅速增长,受市场机制与技术创新对经济周期的影响,反弹耗能量和反弹效应呈波动趋势;经济增长越慢,技术创新的节能效应和反弹耗能效应越小;新常态下现有要素投入规模和结构决定了短期内北京市GDP年均增速不能低于4.50%,否则会由于经济增长过慢导致技术创新动力不足,抑制技术创新发展。
This paper tried to present the quantitative characteristics of ＂ New normal economy＂,on this base,the paper measured the energy saving,energy rebound consumption and energy rebound effect caused by technical innovation using the method of index decomposition and Solow residues,to make a systemic evaluation of the effect of technical innovation on energy consumption.And combined with the further analysis and prediction of the trend of this kind of effect,this paper provided a theoretical and scientific basis for Beijing＇s energy saving and emission reduction.The results showed that Beijing had stepped from the ＂latency＂ of the new normal economy into the new normal economy gradually from 1996 to 2013,the effect of Hicks neutral technical innovation on energy consumption was mainly reflected in the second and the third industries,the energy saving caused by technical innovation had been increased rapidly since 2000,the energy rebound consumption and the rebound effect were swung in this period related to the market mechanism and the impact of technical innovation on economic cycle.The slower the economy grows,the smaller the energy saving and energy rebound consumption caused by technical innovation are.But in the new normal economy,the current scale and structure of the inputs determines that the annual growth rate of Beijing＇s GDP on average shouldn＇t be less than 4.50%,otherwise the growth rate of GDP would be too low to provide motion to the development of technical innovation.
出处
《科技进步与对策》
CSSCI
北大核心
2016年第7期7-15,共9页
Science & Technology Progress and Policy
基金
教育部哲学社会科学研究重大课题攻关项目(14JZD010)
国家科技支撑计划项目(2014BAC06B02)
陕西师范大学研究生培养创新基金项目(2015CXS0002)
关键词
新常态经济
技术创新
能源消耗
反弹效应
情景分析
New Normal Economy
Technical Innovation
Energy Consumption
Rebound Effect
Scenorios Analysis
