摘要
资源环境承载力是长江经济带实施大保护战略的科学依据。以长江经济带为研究对象,以碳排放峰值作为人口承载力研究的切入点,构建长江经济带能源消费碳排放量预测模型和碳排放峰值预测模型,根据现状、预测年以及碳峰值年份碳排放控制目标测算长江经济带所能承载的最大人口规模,研究结果反映长江经济带能源消费由传统的以煤碳为主的结构不断向多元消费和利用结构转型,经济发展对传统能源结构的依赖程度在不断降低。
Based on carbon＇s peak values, constructing the carbon emission of energy consumption model and the carbon＇s peak value predicting model, this article measures the maximum population carrying capacity in Yangtze River Economic Belt according to the controlling objects of carbon emissions in current years, forecast years, and years with carbon＇s peak values. The results show that the carbon-oriented energy consumption structure in Yangtze River Economic Belt is transformed into the multi-consumption and multi-purpose utilization structure, during which the dependence of economic development on traditional resources is decreasing.
出处
《现代城市研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2016年第5期33-38,共6页
Modern Urban Research
基金
江苏高校人文社会科学研究重点项目(2014ZDAM001)
江苏省哲学社会科学联合会决策咨询研究基地项目(15SSL093)
关键词
长江经济带
碳排放峰值
人口承载力
Yangtze River Economic Belt
carbon＇s peak values
population carrying capacity
