摘要
本文采用中国经济政策不确定性指数,系统考察其宏观经济效应,结果显示:(1)与发达经济体相比,中国经济政策不确定性冲击对实际产出的影响较为微弱;(2)虽然经济政策不确定性冲击对工业产出影响较小,但对工业销售产值影响较大,这为理解产能过剩现象提供了新的视角;(3)经济政策不确定性冲击对价格水平具有明显的负向效应,且在时间上呈现倒驼峰型响应轨迹;(4)中国货币政策当局并未利用公开市场操作对经济政策不确定性冲击做出针对性反应。本文认为:国有企业微观投资行为、政府对经济增长的"底线思维"等中国经济结构特征弱化了不确定冲击的"实物期权效应",可以部分地解释中国经济政策不确定性的微弱产出效应。
There has been a vigorous debate on the impact of economic policy uncertainty（EPU） on the Great Recession and recovery. We use the EPU index of China to systematically assess the macroeconomic effects of EPU. Firstly,compared to the USA,we find weaker impact of EPU on real output in China. Secondly,although the EPU shocks have little effect on industrial output,they have great influence on the industrial sales,which provides a new understanding on the phenomenon of excess capacity. Thirdly,EPU shocks have obvious negative effect on the price level and show an inverted hump shaped response.Finally,we show that the monetary authorities do not take targeted actions to the EPU shocks. We believe that the characteristics of the Chinese economic structures,such as the investment behavior of the state-owned enterprises and the government’s bottom-line thinking on economic growth,can partly account for the weak output effect of China EPU.
出处
《南开经济研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2016年第2期3-24,共22页
Nankai Economic Studies
基金
国家自然科学基金青年项目(71403250和71303264)
浙江省自然科学基金青年项目(LQ14G030026)
浙江理工大学浙江省高校人文社科重点研究基地--应用经济学资助项目(2015KYLX03)的资助
关键词
经济政策不确定性
产出
通货膨胀
Economic Policy Uncertainty（EPU）
Output
Inflation
