摘要
为研究气象条件在常州水稻单产"12连冠"中发挥的效应,应用2003—2014年间水稻单产数据及气象观测资料,采用数理统计、文献查阅以及SPSS软件中曲线估计等方法,结合水稻生长指标,对该期间气象要素适宜程度、农业气象灾害发生等级以及气象产量贡献作用进行综合分析。结果表明:(1)气象要素总体适宜:0℃以上积温较常年偏多;日照时数较常年偏少,但90.9%年份在常年-15%范围内;降水量一半年份少于常年,但拔节—孕穗期降水的偏多和抽穗—成熟期降水的偏少则利于水稻的高产;(2)农业气象灾害影响偏轻:基于水稻生育期农业气象灾害发生等级定量预警阈值分析,期间灾害发生等级多为轻度危害,但拔节—孕穗期中度、重度危害有增多趋势;(3)气象产量总体呈正贡献:计算线性、二次项、三次项3个最佳拟合方程,显示多数年份气象产量为正产量。气象条件在常州水稻"12连冠"中起到了增产的贡献效应。
The paper aims to study the effect of meteorological conditions on twelve consecutive peaks of riceyield in Changzhou.The authors used statistical analysis,literature consulting and SPSS software tocomprehensively analyze the suitability degree of meteorological elements,the degrees of agrometeorologicaldisasters and meteorological contributions to rice yield by rice growth indexes based on data of annual riceyield and meteorological observation from 2003 to 2014.The results showed that：（1） in general,themeteorological elements were suitable for rice growth during these years,the day number of accumulatedtemperature above 0℃ was more and the day number of sunshine duration was less than annual mean value,but the low degree percentages of sunshine duration were greater than-15% in 90.9% of the years,meanwhile,compared with annual mean,rainfall was less in half of the years,normally,the condition with more rain injointing to booting stage and less rain in heading to maturity stage was beneficial to high rice production;（2）the influence of agrometeorological disasters was slight during these years,according to the warning thresholdof agrometeorological disasters during rice growth,it was found that mild degree of meteorological disasteraccounted for the majority,while moderate and heavy degree had an increasing tendency in jointing to bootingstage;（3） 3 fitting models,including linear equation,quadratic term equation and three term equation all showed that the meteorological production in most years was a positive contribution to the actual rice yield.Thus,the contribution of meteorological conditions to rice yield in Changzhou was positive among the twelveyears with the highest rice yield.
出处
《中国农学通报》
2016年第15期150-158,共9页
Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin
基金
江苏省气象局科研开发项目"主要农作物生长指标及服务技术研究"(Q201101)
常州市科技项目"常州‘稻麦油’农业气象灾害智能预报预警系统研究"(CE20155037)
关键词
水稻
“12连冠”
气象条件
灾害等级
增产贡献
rice
twelve consecutive peaks of rice yield
meteorological condition
disaster degree
contribution to yield
