摘要
采用我国29个省（市、区）2001~2010年面板数据,分析我国城镇化、产业结构与PM2.5之间的动态关系。面板单位根检验果显示各变量是I（0）过程;Pedroni和Kao协整检验表明变量之间存在协整关系;FMOLS回归发现,就我国总体来说,城镇化水平和第二产业比重的提高会增加PM2.5浓度。从区域来看,东部和中部城镇化水平的提高会加重雾霾污染问题,西部地区城镇化水平的提高反而会缓解雾霾污染问题。西部产业结构对PM2.5浓度的影响最大,其后依次为中部、东部。短期内,我国总体存在着从城镇化、第二产业比重到PM2.5的单向Granger原因,从城镇化到第二产业比重的双向Granger原因。东部与西部短期内的Granger因果关系与全国总体相同,中部地区城镇化和PM2.5不存在因果关系。长期内,我国总体及东、中、西部地区PM2.5、城镇化、产业结构之间存在着双向的Granger因果关系。存在误差修正机制,当系统偏离长期均衡时,三个变量在调整过程中能发挥重要作用,使其重新回到均衡状态。最后,提出我国总体要加快工业绿色转型,实行住宅产业化和绿色建筑、各区域实施有差异化的产业政策、全国总体要减缓城镇化进程,在综合考虑环境的基础上,对城镇发展进行合理的规划、根据不同区域特点推进新型城镇化进程、加强环境规制、防治雾霾等建议。
This paper examines the dynamic relationships between urbanization, industrial structure and PM2.5 in China by means of the panel data of the 29 provinces, towns, municipalities during the 2001-2010 period. With the panel unit root tests, we found that all panel variables are I（0） process. Both the Pedroni and Kao co-integration tests show that there are co-integration relationships between variables. Using FMOLS estimating method, we found that the enhancement of urbanization level and the proportion of secondary industry will increase PM2.5 concentrations in China. The improvement of urbanization level can aggravate the hazy pollution inthe east and center area. By contrast, the increasing of urbanization level will ease hazy pollution problem in the west area. Industrial structure in the west area has the biggest influence on PM2.5 concentrations, followed by the center and east area. In the short term, there is unidirectional Granger causality from urbanization and industrial structure to PM2.5 in China. There are bidirectional Granger causalities from urbanization to industrial structure in China. Granger causality relationships in China are the same as the east and west area. In addition, urbanization and PM2.5 lack short-run causality in the center area. In the long-run, there are bidirectional Granger causality relationships between urbanization, industrial structure and PM2.5 in China, the east, central and west area. There exists error correction mechanism, these three variables could play important role in adjustment process as the system departs from the long-run equilibrium. Finally, we put forward policy suggestions such as speeding up the industrial green transformation and practicing housing industrialization and green building in China, implementing differentiation of industrial policy, slowing down urbanization process and carrying through reasonable urban planning on the basis of considering the environment in China, promoting the new urbanization process based on the characteristics of different areas, strengthening environmental regulation, prevention and treatment hazy.
出处
《生态经济》
CSSCI
北大核心
2016年第6期19-25,共7页
Ecological Economy
基金
国家社会科学基金项目(15BGL144)
教育部人文社会科学基金青年项目(10YJC790005)
江苏省社会科学基金项目(12DDB009)
江苏省普通高校研究生科研创新计划项目(KYZZ15_0106)
