摘要
研究了市场需求随机且受零售商努力行为因素影响的情形下过度自信零售商的决策问题。通过模型推导得到过度自信零售商的最优订货量和最优销售努力水平,讨论了过度自信零售商与理性零售商在最优订货量和最优销售努力水平上的偏差。通过比较静态分析,研究了零售商的过度自信水平对其最优订货量和最优销售努力水平的影响,对需求方差进行了敏感性分析,分析了市场环境参数对零售商最优决策的影响。结果显示:当零售商面临低收益市场环境或更高收益市场环境时,过度自信行为可促使零售商做出趋近于理性决策的选择。
This paper studies the decision-making of overconfident retailers in the situation that a stochastic market demand is influenced by sale effort of retailers.And it obtains the optimal order amount and sale effort level of overconfident retailer through the model derivation,and discusses the decision biases between overconfident retailers and rational retailers.Through the static comparative analysis,it illustrates the efforts of retailer′s overconfidence on optimal order and optimal sale effort level,and makes a parametric sensitivity analysis on variance of demand and market condition parameter.The result shows as follows：overconfidence can make the retailer′s decision close to rational retailer′s decision in low-profit condition or more high-profit condition.
出处
《技术经济》
CSSCI
北大核心
2016年第5期112-117,共6页
Journal of Technology Economics
基金
国家自然科学基金项目"运营环境下的拍卖机制及其应用研究"(71171053)
国家自然科学基金青年科学基金项目"传统制造企业电子商务化的最优时点及供应链协调与优化--基于博弈模型的研究"(71301025)
关键词
过度自信
零售商
销售努力
报童模型
overconfidence
retailer
sale effort
newsvendor model
