摘要
近年来,随着人口老龄化的加重,政府大力引导和促进社区养老服务业的发展,PPP模式在社区养老服务项目中被提出。但由于社区养老服务项目经营周期长、项目投资回报率低、投资回收期长等特点,使该类项目存在较高的投资风险。文章在风险分担视角下,通过对影响项目未来收益的确定性和不确定性风险因素进行分析,建立了社区养老服务PPP项目投资决策模型,运用蒙特卡罗模拟方法对项目各年净现值、内部收益率及投资回收期进行模拟,通过对模拟结果进行分析来判断项目风险大小,从而做出投资决策。并结合济南拟以PPP模式建造的某老年人日间照料中心案例数据验证了模型的可行性,以期为私人资本对社区养老服务PPP项目做出正确的投资决策提供一个较为合理的方法。
In recent years,with the aging of the population increase,the government is guiding and promoting the development of community endowment services,the PPP model in the community endowment service project is put forward. But as of the community endowment service operation cycle is long,low project investment rate of return,payback period is long,etc,make the project has high investment risk. The article under the perspective of risk sharing,by analyzing the influence project future earnings certainty and uncertainty of risk factors,community endowment service PPP project investment decision-making model is set up,using Monte Carlo simulation method to the project in each of the net present value,internal rate of return and payback period of simulation,the analysis of simulation results to determine project risk size,so as to make investment decisions. Combined with the PPP mode to build a day care center elderly case data in Jinan to verify the feasibility of the model,in order to private capital to the community endowment service of PPP project to make the right investment decision-making provides a reasonable method.
出处
《土木工程与管理学报》
北大核心
2016年第3期47-52,67,共7页
Journal of Civil Engineering and Management
关键词
风险分担
社区养老服务
PPP
蒙特卡洛模拟
投资决策
risk sharing
community endowment services
public-private-partnership（PPP）
monte-carlo simulation
investment decision-making
