摘要
东亚地区秩序研究的传统观点是将安全领域和经济领域割裂开来,忽视了地区秩序的整体性和关联性。通过结合安全和经济两个基本领域以及均势和霸权两种地区格局,作者提出了一个合成的结构现实主义分析框架,对国际和地区体系转型的路径提供了更为精致的论述。根据互动领域(安全/经济)和体系状态(均势/霸权)两个维度划分,无论是全球还是地区层次,国际体系都可以被区分为完全均势、部分均势、完全霸权和部分霸权四种基本形态。国际体系转型是在这四种模式之间或短暂或漫长的交替转换,而不是简单地从一个均势发展到另一个均势,或者从一个霸权转移到又一个霸权。冷战结束以来,东亚地区体系经历了从完全霸权到部分霸权的发展,目前呈现出向完全均势过渡的态势,但体系转型进程及其最终形态仍具有高度不确定性。东亚地区体系转型的前景主要取决于中国与美国之间实力对比的变动以及地区内各国的战略调整与关系组合,尤其是各方如何在变动中寻求实力分配与利益分配之间的重新匹配。
Traditional accounts on East Asian regional order suffer the problem of treating security and economy as two separate domains,and neglect the interconnectedness of regional order.A synthetic structural realism,as developed in this article,combines these two domains and offers us with a more sophisticated account on systemic transition in international relations.By making a distinction between the domains of interaction(security/economy) and the status of system(balance of power/hegemony),international system,whether on global or regional levels,can be distinguished into four types:complete balance of power,partial balance of power,complete hegemony,and partial hegemony.System transition is a successive,long or short,change from one type to another among these four types,instead of moving from one equilibrium to another equilibrium,or from one hegemony to another hegemony.From this synthetic structural realist perspective,the East Asian regional system since the end of the Cold War has shifted from a complete hegemonic order dominated by the United States to a partial hegemony with several regional economic powers.A complete balance of power may be formed with the rise of China in both economic and security domains,but uncertainties exist with regard to the process as well as the final status of this transition.The prospect of systemic transition in East Asia is determined by the changing distribution of power between China and the United States on the one hand,and by the strategic adjustments and alignments of the states in the region.
出处
《世界经济与政治》
CSSCI
北大核心
2016年第5期32-55,156-157,共24页
World Economics and Politics
基金
国家社科基金青年项目(项目编号:15CGJ031)的阶段性成果
关键词
东亚秩序
安全一经济关联
合成的结构现实主义
均势
霸权
East Asian order
security-economy nexus
a synthetic structural realism
balance of power
hegemony
