摘要
为探析安徽铜陵地区气候变暖与灾害性天气出现频次变化趋势,选取铜陵市国家基本气象站1960—2013年逐日气象资料,通过线性趋势拟合、M-K检验法分析铜陵地区近54年最高、最低气温以及出现的年雷暴、大风、暴雨日数等灾害性天气气候变化特征。结果表明,铜陵地区近54年最高、最低气温均呈明显上升趋势,增温速率分别为0.21、0.56℃/10年,气候变暖明显;近54年铜陵地区灾害性天气出现频次均呈减少趋势,年雷暴、大风、暴雨日数气候倾向率分别为-3.35、-3.78、-0.30 d/10年;铜陵地区近54年灾害性天气出现频次的变化趋势与气候变暖相关。
The severe weather characteristics of climate change, such as the highest and lowest temperatures and thunderstorm, strong winds and heavy rain days appeared in Tongling area in nearly 54 years were analyzed, by selecting daily meteorological data of the national basic weather stations in Tongling City in 1960—2013, through method of the linear trend fitting and M- K test, for studying the climate warming and severe weather frequency change of Tongling region in Anhui Province.The results showed that the highest and lowest temperatures of Tongling region in Nearly 54 years had obvious rising trend,with warming rate of 0.21, 0.56℃ /10 years, and climate warming was obvious.The frequencies of severe weather of Tongling region in nearly 54 years both had decreasing trends, and climate trend rates of wind, thunderstorm, heavy rain days were 3.35, 3.78, 0.30 d/10 years,respectively. The severe weather frequency trends of Tongling region in nearly 54 years were related to climate warming.
出处
《农业灾害研究》
2016年第3期16-19,共4页
Journal of Agricultural Catastrophology
关键词
气候变暖
灾害性天气
54年
频次变化
趋势分析
Warming climate
Severe weather
54 years
Frequency of change
Trend analysis
