摘要
基于广东、湖北和甘肃等省新农保试点状况的实地调研数据,采用Logistic回归模型和WLS进行数据修正分析得出:干群关系和对村干部信任度、是否知道养老金领取标准和养老金是否够养老、对新农保试点的满意度对农民参保决策具有显著正向影响;研究认为,农民参保决策过程是有限理性条件下的跨期消费决策行为,农民参加新农保的行为存为明显的年龄上的逆向选择,以人均可储蓄收入、家庭承包地面积等衡量的农民家庭收入水平、收入结构等经济因素是农民参保决策的基础。在此基础上提出了提高农民参保积极性、进一步推动新农保制度发展的建议:提高青年农民主动参保积极性,完善城乡养老保险制度的转移衔接;多管齐下,缓解农民收入的有限性、多用途性与保险费支出固定性之间的矛盾;以新农保等惠农政策推进为契机,进一步改善农村社区治理模式及状况。
This paper is based on the data obtained from field survey of pilot situation of new rural social pension insurance in Guangdong,？ Hubei？ and？ Gansu provinces and adopts Logistic regression model and WLS for data correction analysis. The findings are：elements such as the cadre-mass relation, level of trust in village cadres, knowledge of the standard for getting pension and the sufficiency of pension for their life, satisfaction about the new rural social pension, all have a positive impact on farmer’ s decision to participate the insurance service;the decision making process of farmer’ s participation in the pension insurance is a de-cision making behavior of inter-temporal consumption with limited rational terms;their choice has a obvious trend of adverse selection with their ages; economic elements such as criteria adopted to measure their in-come level and structure, namely saving income per capita, family contracted land area, are the basis in their decision making process. Based on the study, suggestions are made to promote their enthusiasm to par-ticipate in the pension insurance to further develop the development of new rural pension insurance mecha-nism：promote the young farmer’ s willingness to participate in the pension insurance, and improve the trans-fer of urban and rural pension system;adopt multiple measures to resolve the contradiction between famer’ s limited sources of income and multiple usages of income and the fixed expenditure of premium;take benefi-ting-farmer policies such as the new rural pension insurance to further improve the mode and status of com-munity governance in the countryside.
出处
《社会工作与管理》
2016年第4期63-70,共8页
Social Work and Management
基金
国家社会科学重大招标项目"新时期中国民生保障体系建设研究"(10&ZD038)
博士后科学基金面上资助项目"民生保障指标体系的构建与评价研究:基于财政效率视角"(2013M542231)
湖北省教育厅人文社科项目"清洁发展目标下的湖北公共财政优化研究"(2012G419)
关键词
新农保
影响因素
LOGISTIC回归模型
WLS修正
the new rural social pension insurance
influence factors
logistic regression model
weighted least square correction
