摘要
非洲是我国重要的石油进口来源地,但是未来非洲石油出口也面临一些不确定性。分析未来非洲石油出口趋势,有利于我国对非洲石油安全战略的制定。本文利用2005—2014年间世界石油进出口数据,对比计算了我国与美国、印度和日本的石油进口安全指数,表明当前我国的石油进口安全性总体尚好,非洲对我国石油进口安全作用巨大。通过分析未来20年非洲发展形势,认为未来非洲自身的石油消费将快速增长,导致其石油出口率降低,这一转变将不利于我国的石油安全。
Africa is one of the most important sources for oil import to China, but Africa＇s oil exports are also facing some uncertainty in the future, so that analyses of the trends of African＇s oil export could be helpful to formulate China＇s strategy for oil cooperation with Africa. Based on the calculation and comparison of oil import safety index among China, the United States, India and Japan, it shows that current situation for oil import safety in China is relatively fine, and Africa has made a great contribution to China＇s oil import security. With the analysis of the development tendency of Africa in the next 20 years, Africa＇s oil consumption will grow rapidly, resulting in lower oil exports rate, which will not be conducive to China＇s oil security.
出处
《中国能源》
2016年第6期14-18,13,共6页
Energy of China
基金
南京大学中国南海研究协同创新中心研究项目
国家基础科学人才培养基金项目(编号:J1103408)
