摘要
传统单变量灰色预测模型的指数结构形式制约了其对小样本振荡序列的模拟与预测能力,对此,通过包络线将振荡序列拓展为具有明确上界与下界的区间灰数序列,还原影响因素不确定性条件下振荡序列的区间灰数形式;在此基础上,利用区间灰数建模方法实现对振荡序列取值范围的模拟与预测.应用该方法较好地模拟了具有振荡特征的重庆市空气质量指数(AQI)的变化规律,所得研究成果为小样本振荡序列的模拟与预测提供了一种新的分析方法与建模手段.
The exponential construction form of the traditional grey prediction model with single variable restricts its simulative and predictive abilities for the oscillation sequence with poor samples. Therefore, an oscillation sequence is expanded to an interval grey number sequence with the defined upper and lower bounds through envelope lines, which restores the interval grey number form of oscillation sequence under the condition of uncertain influence factors. After this,the value ranges of oscillation sequence are simulated and forecasted by using the modeling method of forecasting interval grey number. Finally, the proposed method is employed to effectively simulate the change laws of Chongqing air quality index（AQI）. The study results provide a novel analysis method and modeling tool for the oscillation sequence with poor samples.
出处
《控制与决策》
EI
CSCD
北大核心
2016年第7期1311-1316,共6页
Control and Decision
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(71271226)
中国博士后科学基金特别项目(2015T80975)
中国博士后科学基金项目(2014M560712)
重庆市基础与前沿研究计划项目(cstc2014jcyj A00024)
关键词
灰色理论
小样本振荡序列
包络线
区间预测
grey theory
oscillation sequence with poor samples
envelope lines
interval prediction
