摘要
探索未来主要气候情景下参考作物蒸散量（reference evapotranspiration,ET0）的时空分布可为农业水资源科学配置,科学应对气候变化对农业生产的影响提供基础数据支撑。该文利用黄淮海及周围88个站点1961-2010年逐日气象数据,Penman-Monteith公式估算的ET0为因变量,采用非线性回归分析方法对Hargreaves公式进行参数属地化订正,基于1961-2005年温度日序列,利用统计降尺度模型（statistical downscaling model,SDSM）以及大气环流模型（general circulation models,GCMs）中加拿大地球系统模式（the second generation of Canadian Earth System Model,Can ESM2）得到代表性浓度（representative concentration pathways,RCPs）4.5和8.5两种排放情景下2010-2100年温度日序列,通过率定的Hargreaves公式预测黄淮海地区ET0,并采用普通克里格（ordinary Kriging）方法进行空间化处理。结果表明：率定后的Hargreaves公式与Penman-Monteith公式的相关指数波动范围为0.65-0.85,平均值为0.80,SDSM模拟的最低温度、最高温度率定期和验证期的确定性系数都在0.95以上;未来两种气候情景下,黄淮海地区ET0整体上均呈增加趋势;RCP4.5情景下ET0从河北与山东、河南交界处形成的＂勺＂状向周围逐渐减小,在河北唐山与乐亭、江苏东台、河南驻马店附近达到最小值;RCP8.5情景下黄淮海地区2020 s（2011-2040年）、2050 s（2041-2070年）ET0的空间分布和RCP4.5非常相似,但2080 s（2071-2100年）ET0的空间分布差异较大,最高值主要分布在山东惠民县附近、河南新乡附近、安徽蚌阜和江苏盱眙附近。如不采取科学的应对措施,未来ET0的增加,可能会进一步加剧该区水资源短缺程度,该研究可为黄淮海地区水资源的优化管理和灌溉制度制定提供科学参考。
In order to tackle climate change and improve the spatial-temporal collocation of water resources, the localization management was performed for the parameters of the Hargreaves model with reference evapotranspiration（ET0）, which was calculated with the Penman-Monteith model using the daily meteorological data from 88 weather stations in Huang-Huai-Hai Plain during 1961-2010. The long series of daily temperature data from 2010 to 2100 in representative concentration paths RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios were simulated with the statistical downscaling model（SDSM4.2） and the second generation of Canadian Earth System Model（Can ESM2）. The long series of daily temperature data were used to calculate ET0 in the 21 st century with the calibrated Hargreaves formula. The temporal change trend of ET0 during 1961-2100 was analyzed by the Mann-Kendall trend test and relative anomaly method, and the spatial distribution of ET0 during 2010-2100 was analyzed by the Kriging method in this study. Results indicated that the standard error of the corresponding parameter in the calibrated Hargreaves formula was very small, and the fluctuation range of correlation index between the calibrated Hargreaves model and the Penman-Monteith model was 0.65-0.85, with a mean value of 0.80, which indicated the high accuracy of the calibrated Hargreaves model. The determination coefficient of the maximum temperature and the minimum temperature between the observed and simulated values in the calibration period（1961-1990） and the verification period（1991-2005） was greater than 0.95, and the root mean square error was very small, indicating the high accuracy of the temperature simulated by the SDSM4.2. ET0 in the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain in 21 st century under the 2 climate scenarios all had a trend of increasing in the future. The average values of ET0 under the RCP4.5 scenario in 2020 s, 2050 s and 2080 s were 940.71, 949.49 and 955.39 mm, respectively, 5.14%, 6.12% and 6.78% greater than the benchmark value（an average of 894.76 mm from 1961 to 2010）. The average values of ET0 under the RCP8.5 scenario were 940.12 mm in 2020 s, 966.72 mm in 2050 s and 986.97 mm in 2080 s, respectively, 5.07%, 8.04% and 10.3% greater than the benchmark. The increase under RCP8.5 was slighter than that under RCP4.5, which was maybe caused by higher temperature and solar radiation under RCP8.5. From an overall perspective, the change trend of relative anomaly of mean temperature and ET0 was similar： most years before 2055 had negative anomaly, while after 2055 had positive anomaly. However, the value of positive and negative anomaly in ET0 had bigger fluctuations than that in mean temperature. The relative anomaly of mean temperature and ET0 increased gradually as time went on, and the increase of them under RCP8.5 was higher than that under RCP4.5. ET0 in the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain under RCP4.5 decreased gradually in a spoon-like curve from the border of Hebei, Shandong and Henan to the surrounding areas, and the minimum was observed in Tangshan and Laoting in Hebei, Dongtai in Jiangsu, and Zhumadian in Henan. The spatial distribution of ET0 under RCP8.5 in 2020 s was very similar to that in 2050 s, ET0 decreased gradually from the border of Hebei, Shandong and Henan to the surrounding areas, and the minimum was observed in Tangshan and Laoting in Hebei, Dongtai in Jiangsu, and Zhumadian in Henan. But there was a great difference in the spatial distribution of ET0 in 2080 s, especially for the spatial distribution of the greatest values. The maximum values were distributed in these areas in the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain： Huimin in Shandong, Xinxiang in Henan, Bengbu in Anhui and Xuyi in Jiangsu. The increase of ET0 would further aggravate the shortage of water resources in Huang-Huai-Hai Plain. This research provides valuable information for irrigation schedule.
出处
《农业工程学报》
EI
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2016年第14期168-176,共9页
Transactions of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering
基金
国家公益性行业(农业)科研专项(201203077)
水利部公益性行业科研专项(201501016)
河南省基础与前沿技术研究(162300410168)
关键词
蒸散
气候变化
温度
参考作物蒸散量
时空分布
降尺度
代表性浓度路径
黄淮海地区
evapotranspiration
climate change
temperature
reference crop evapotranspiration
spatial and temporal distribution
downscaling model
representative concentration pathways（RCPs）
Huang-Huai-Hai Plain
