摘要
受环境改善和传统习俗影响,部分地区山火频繁发生,严重威胁到输电线路安全运行。本文分析了用于研究灾害风险分布的发生频率法的不足,提出了研究山火风险等级的改进LEC法。在调查引起山火的主要因素及其时空分布规律基础上,通过山火后果、频率和可能性来量化山火风险,采用综合气象干旱指数修正山火风险值,并实现了动态山火风险分布图的绘制。本方法绘制的动态湖北电网山火风险分布图与实际情况相符,对输电线路山火风险的预测准确度高,使用方便。
Affected by the environment improvement and the traditional practices, the forest fires occur frequently in some areas, which have greatly threatened the reliability of transmission lines and safety of power grid. The deficiencies of traditional occurrence frequency method used to study the distribution of the disaster risk are analyzed in this paper. The improved LEC method is proposed to researchthe level of forest fire risk. Based on investigating the main factors and spatial-temporal distribution,the risk of forest fires is quantified by the consequences, frequency and possibility. The risk value isamended by the meteorological drought composite index. The drawing method of dynamic forest fire riskdistribution map is given. The case shows that the dynamic forest fire risk distribution map of Hubeiprovince drawn by this method is consistent with the actual situation, which has the high accuracy ofprediction forest fires and is easy to use.
出处
《湖北电力》
2016年第2期23-27,32,共6页
Hubei Electric Power
关键词
输电线路
山火
LEC方法
综合气象干旱指数
风险
transmission line
forest fire
LEC method
meteorological drought composite index
risk
