摘要
目的分析中国传染病自动预警系统(CIDARS)在肇庆市的运行情况。方法对肇庆市2008-2014年移动百分位数法预警相关病种的信号数、信号响应率、响应时间、信号核实方式及响应结果等内容进行描述性分析,使用及时性、灵敏度和错误预警率评价预警系统效果,并比较2010年12月10日预警阈值调整前后的预警效果。结果 2008-2014年,肇庆市传染病自动预警系统共发出5 708条预警信号,预警信号响应率为100.00%;预警信号以其它感染性腹泻病(2 460条,占43.10%)、流行性腮腺炎(1 453条,占24.56%)、流感(664条,占11.63%)为主;共有3种传染病的11条预警信号被判断为疑似事件;预警系统及时性为6 d、灵敏度为53.85%、错误预警率为87.43%。预警系统阈值调整后,错误预警率从96.52%下降至90.91%,其他感染性腹泻、痢疾、伤寒和副伤寒、乙脑、急性出血性结膜炎5种传染病的错误预警率有所下降。结论肇庆市传染病自动预警系统能够正常运行,预警信号能够及时响应,但预警系统的预警效果有待进一步提高。
Objective To analyze the running status of China Infectious Diseases Automated-alert and Response System（ CIDARS） in Zhaoqing City. Methods We descriptively analyzed the amount of signal,the proportion of signal response,signal response time,the manner of signal verification and signal response results of the diseases early-warned by mobile percentile method in Zhaoqing City during 2008-2014. The performance of CIDARS was evaluated by timeliness,sensitivity and the rate of false alarm,and the efficacy of early-warning on December 10,2010 was compared between before and after adjusting the threshold value of CIDARS. Results A total of 5,708 early-warning signals were generated in Zhaoqing City during 2008- 2014,and the response rate of the signals was 100. 00%. The early-warning signals related to other infectious diarrhea（ n = 2,460,43. 10%）,mumps（ n = 1,453,24. 56%） and influenza（ n = 664,11. 63%） prevailed. 11 signals involving 3 kinds of infectious diseases were preliminarily verified as the suspected outbreaks. 6 days were considered as the timeliness of the system,the sensitivity was53. 85%,and the rate of false alarm was 87.43%. After adjusting the threshold value of CIDARS,the rate of false alarm declined from 96. 52% to 90. 91%. The rates of false alarm regarding 5 infectious diseases,including other infectious diarrhea,dysentery,typhoid and paratyphoid,Japanese encephalitis and acute hemorrhagic conjunctivitis were decreased. Conclusions The running status of CIDARS in Zhaoqing City is normal. It has realized the timely early-warning signal response,but the efficacy remains to be further improved.
出处
《实用预防医学》
CAS
2016年第7期861-864,共4页
Practical Preventive Medicine
关键词
传染病自动预警系统
信号响应率
及时性
灵敏度
错误预警率
Infectious Diseases Automated-alert and Response System
Proportion of signal response
Timeliness
Sensitivity
Rate of false alarm
