垂直专业化贸易对国际经济周期传导的影响——来自中国与东亚9国(地区)间的证据被引量：5

Influence of Vertical Specialization Trade on the International Business Cycle Transmission——Evidence from China and Nine East Asian Economies

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摘要本文通过修正GEM模型而发展了一个引入垂直中间产品贸易和水平中间产品贸易对国际经济周期传导的全球经济理论模型(IMT-GEM),并利用1991-2014年中国与东亚9国(地区)间的面板数据对此进行了检验。研究发现,垂直专业化贸易对国际经济周期协动性具有显著、稳定的正向作用;且随着垂直专业化指数的提高,国际经济周期的协动性亦随之增强,从而丰富了"贸易—经济周期协动性之谜"的谜底理论。实证研究还发现,在对东亚经济周期协动性的传递上,除垂直专业化外,产业间贸易相对产业内贸易的作用较大,一些非贸易变量如FDI、产业结构差异度和政策协调程度的影响也不容忽视。研究结论对于合理把握垂直专业化贸易这把"双刃剑"、促进中国经济持续稳定增长具有一定启示。 A theoretical global economic model with intra-mediate trade （IMT-GEM）is proposed by developing corrected GEM model, which has been validated by an empirical analysis using a panel data of China and 9 East Asian economies from 1991 to 2014. The results show that the vertical intermediate products have significant and stable positive effect on the international business cycle, and this effect will be strengthened as the index of vertical specialization increases. Empirical research also finds that, except for vertical specialization, inter-industry trade plays a more important role than intra-industry trade in the transmission of East Asian business cycle. Some non-trade variables such as FDI, difference ratio of industrial structure and policy coordination should not be ignored. The research implications are conductive to both making good use of vertical specialization trade which is a ＂double-edged sword＂ and promoting the sustained and stable growth of Chinese economy.

作者顾国达任祎卓郭爱美

机构地区浙江大学经济学院杭州电子科技大学经济学院

出处《财贸经济》 CSSCI 北大核心 2016年第7期121-132,共12页 Finance & Trade Economics

关键词垂直专业化国际经济周期协动性传导机制 IMT—GEM Vertical Specialization, Collaborative of International Business Cycle, Transmission Mechanism,IMT-GEM

分类号 F113.7 [经济管理—国际贸易] F746 [经济管理—国际贸易]

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