期刊文献+

丹江口水库历史洪水不确定性对设计成果的影响研究 被引量:2

Effect of Historical Flood Uncertainty on Design Floods in the Danjiangkou Reservoir
下载PDF
导出
摘要 因资料条件等原因,所考证到的历史洪水在量级和重现期方面总存在一定的误差。研究这种不确定性对设计成果的影响,对提高设计成果质量有重要的意义。以丹江口水库为实例,分别采用适线法(CF)和线型矩法(LM)估计P-III型分布参数,建立了P-III/CF,P-III/LM两种洪水频率分析模型推求设计洪水,研究探讨了历史洪水不确定性对设计成果的影响。结果表明:历史洪水量级误差和重现期误差对设计成果均有一定的影响,但量级误差对设计成果的影响比重现期误差显著得多。P-III/CF模型计算的影响要大于P-III/LM模型。 The historical floods always have some errors in terms of the magnitude and the return period due to many complex factors. Analyzing these uncertainty effects can improve the quality of design flood esti- mation. The P-III/CF and P-III/LM frequency analysis models in which P-III distribution couples with Curve-Fitting (CF) and L-Moment (LM) parameter estimation methods are used to evaluate the uncer- tainty of historical floods in the Danjiangkou Reservoir. The results show that the historical flood magnitude errors have more significant influence on design floods than the return period errors. The effects of historical flood on design floods estimated by P-III/CF model are larger than those by P-III/LM model.
出处 《水资源研究》 2016年第3期255-261,共7页 Journal of Water Resources Research
基金 国家自然科学基金重点项目(51539009)资助
关键词 历史洪水 不确定性 量级误差 重现期误差 频率分析模型 Historical Flood, Uncertainty, Magnitude Error, Return Period Error, Frequency Analysis Model
  • 相关文献

参考文献14

  • 1郭生练,刘章君,熊立华.设计洪水计算方法研究进展与评价[J].水利学报,2016,47(3):302-314. 被引量:151
  • 2HOSKING, J. R. M., WALLIS, J. R. The value of historical data in flood frequency analysis. Water Resources Research, 1986, 22(11 ): 1606-1612. http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/WR022i011 p01606.
  • 3STEDINGER, J. R., COHN, T. A. Flood frequency analysis with historical and paleoflood information. Water Resources Re- search, 1986, 22(5): 273-286. http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/WR022i005p00785.
  • 4HIRSCH, R. M., STEDINGER, J. R. Plotting positions for historical floods and their precision. Water Resources Research, 1987, 23(4): 715-727. http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/WR023i004p00715.
  • 5费永法.浅析历史特大洪水在设计洪水中的作用[J].水文,1998,17(6):6-10. 被引量:4
  • 6ENGLAND JR., J. F., JARRETT, R. D. and SALAS, J. D. Data-based comparisons of moment estimators using historical and paleo-flood data. Journal of Hydrology, 2003(278): 172-196. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S0022-1694('03)00141-0.
  • 7GUO, S. L. Nonparametric variable kernel estimation with historical floods and paleoflood information. Water Resources Re- search, 1991, 27(1 ): 91-98. http ://dx.doi.org/10.1029/90WR01972.
  • 8FRANCES, F., SALAS, J. D. and BOES, D. C. Flood frequency analysis with systematic and historical or paleoflood data based on the two-parameter general extreme value models. Water Resources Research, 1994, 30(6): 1653-1664. http ://dx.doi.org/10.1029/94WR00154.
  • 9WILLIAMS, A., ARCHER, D. The use of historical flood information in the English midlands to improve risk assessment. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 2002, 47(1 ): 67-76. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/02626660209492908.
  • 10郭生练.考虑历史洪水资料的频牢计算方法[J].武汉水利电力学院学报,1988(1):15-21.

二级参考文献165

共引文献188

同被引文献13

引证文献2

二级引证文献3

相关作者

内容加载中请稍等...

相关机构

内容加载中请稍等...

相关主题

内容加载中请稍等...

浏览历史

内容加载中请稍等...
;
使用帮助 返回顶部