摘要
统测作为高考的模拟考试，其预测作用如何？本文运用效标效度来进行衡量，通过对大理、下关一中９７、９８届两 年统测成绩与高考成绩的实例分析后认为：统测成绩对高考成绩具有较好的预测作用。虽然回归方程可以通过 统测成绩预测高考成绩的理论分数，但因高考成绩存在滞后性与某些不确定性因素，还必须根据情况作必要调 整来假定回归方程方可进行预测。
The provincial unified test (PUT) serves as a simulated one for annual national matriculation test (NMT). How effective is its forecast? With measurement of efficiency curve, this article concludes, after an comparative analysis of the achievements made in PUT and NMT respectively by the grade-97 and grade-98 students of Xiaguan No.1 High school and Dali No.1 Hight School, that PUT result Plays an effective forecast role in NMT result. Although the regression equation may forecast the theoret- ical score of NMT result through PUT result, there still exist some uncertainties in NMT result (e.g. NMT coming much later). Therefore, we must follow actual situation and make proper readjustment presuming the regression equation, so as to make much more effective forecast.
出处
《大理师专学报》
2000年第2期96-99,共4页
Journal of Dali Teachers College
关键词
高考
统测
效度系数
回归方程
教育统计
PUT
NMT
forecast
efficiency curve
regression equation
educational statistics
